This Year on StockTwits
Here’s what went down on StockTwits in 2017.
2017 was a crazy and exciting year for the markets. We saw a massive bull run led by the big tech companies, the rise of cryptocurrency coins and tokens into the mainstream, and a lot of BTFD moments. With the year coming to a close, we wanted to take a look back and reflect on everything the StockTwits community had to offer this year.
Most New Watchers — Roku ($ROKU)
The number of watchers on StockTwits can be a good indicator of trends in the markets. Roku, a manufacturer of digital media streaming set-top devices, saw the biggest increase in watchers this year during the lead-up to its IPO and beyond. The $ROKU stream grew from 600 to over 14,000 watchers within the past year. While some may argue that Roku’s devices have issues compared to the Apple TV or the Google Chrome, the company is doing great as an public company with over a 95% return this year.
Most Bullish — Nintendo Co. ($NTDOY)
Since StockTwits is the go-to place for real-time social sentiment, we wanted to come up with a way to capture the most consistently bullish stock of the year. To do this, we calculated a “Sentiment Sharpe Ratio” for every symbol by taking the ratio of average daily sentiment to standard deviation of daily sentiment. We then filtered out all symbols with less than 1,000 messages a month and individual stocks with a market cap below $500M.
This resulted in Nintendo Co. as the most bullish stock, with a Sentiment Sharpe Ratio of 9.16. $NTDOY garnered a lot of investor attention in 2016 with Pokemon Go. This continued into 2017 with release of Super Mario Run on iOS (12/2016) and Android (3/2017), along the Nintendo Switch console (3/2017). Investors were right to be bullish on the beloved gaming brand, as it saw returns of over 75% this year.
Most Bearish — CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX)
In what may be the single-most succinct summary of the 2017 market, the CBOE Volatility Index came in as the most bearish security with a Sentiment Sharpe Ratio of -0.36. This 2017 bull market defied gravity in its consistent movements upward. This, of course, means low volatility, resulting in the $VIX hitting all time lows this year.
Most “Right” Stock — Shopify ($SHOP)
We have to give credit where credit is due when it comes to making calls. No stream was more “right” this year than the Shopify stream. The Canadian e-commerce company reported strong growth in 2017, supporting over 500,000 merchants and $45B in gross merchandise volume on its platform. $SHOP came in as the fifth-most bullish stock with a Sentiment Sharpe Ratio of 4.66, and has over a 130% cumulative return for the year.
Most Wrong Stock — Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ($AMD)
Not every call you make is going to be a winner, and when you’re wrong you just have to take a step back and learn. $AMD was the third-most bullish stock with a Sentiment Sharpe Ratio of 6.79, but saw a 5% decline in price during the year. Despite the lack of short term success in 2017, $AMD hopefuls are still bullish that the company’s microchips will be a major hardware component in the AI economy over the next few years.
Most Divisive — Snap Inc. ($SNAP)
Not every StockTwits streams is as universally bullish or bearish as the streams we’ve covered so far. Many offer a platform for passionate debate. To find the most divisive stream, we looked for the symbol with a Sentiment Sharpe Ratio closest to zero — indicating mixed sentiment — with the highest message volume.
Snapchat Inc., the creators of the newest social platform, IPO’ed this year with expectations all over the board. Fundamental investors were (and remain) appalled at the valuation level for a company that has no clear path to sizable revenue, while technical investors were intrigued by the price action.
Dark Horse — Bitcoin ($BTC.X)
To identify the “dark horse” of 2017, we took a look at the growth in message volume for all symbols with at least 100 messages a month in 2016 and a market cap above $500 million (if an individual stock).
Bitcoin unsurprisingly saw the most growth, with over 30 times more volume in 2017. $BTC.X, the oldest active cryptocurrency, brought cryptocurrencies into the mainstream with a 2,000%+ return and a legacy brand name. Whether bullish or bearish, everyone seemed to be talking about Bitcoin this year — even resulting in 2–4x the volume of the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks regularly in December.
Fall From Grace — Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shrs ($DUST)
$DUST, a gold ETF, saw the biggest decline in message volume when considering symbols with over 1000 messages a month this year . The ETF declined 72% from last year. As cryptocurrencies (or “digital gold” as some like to refer to them) pushed their way into the spotlight, it was only natural for regular gold to lose its luster. Between a new “store of value” and a year that mostly went sideways, investor interest in gold was down from last year.
Most BTFD — PowerShares Nasdaq-100 QQQ ($QQQ)
“BTFD” was the rallying cry of the 2017 bull market, but which stream saw the most dips bought? The market was unstoppable, so it’s only natural that the PowerShares Nasdaq-100 ETF saw the highest percentage of messages (0.9%, to be exact) containing “BTFD.” The equities market was all about big tech, and investors did not waver; when prices took a slight hit, they celebrated.
Best Newcomer — Michael Kramer (@Scorpio244)
Michael Kramer join the StockTwits Community in February of 2017, and made an immediate impact by sharing his knowledge as a market professional. Kramer is a 20-year market veteran who trades around themes and growth. He shares this knowledge daily, and even participated in a live Q&A with the StockTwits Community this year. Kramer stopped by StockTwits HQ to discuss his investment philosophy and to talk about avoiding value traps below.
Our Favorite Message
One of our favorite and most engaging messages of the year is this reply from @botgreet on @ROAST risking his tuition money into SNAP calls. @botgreet points out that even if he loses on his trade, he will learn from his experience — a lesson that investors both new and experienced can’t ever forget.
Our Favorite Chart
A cup-and-handle pattern is one of the most commonly used patterns by technical traders. When properly spotted and executed, it offers a powerful tool for technical traders. @suriNotes shares this pattern often, and it worked out perfectly on $FB, achieving the projected target and beyond. $FB has moved +32% since this call.
“This Year on StockTwits” is a collaboration between Garrett Hoffman (follow him on StockTwits), Stefan Cheplick (follow him on StockTwits), Michael Bozzello (follow him on StockTwits), and Justin Paterno (follow him on StockTwits)
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