Snapchat’s IPO was the most anticipated IPOs in recent memory and what’s an IPO without speculation about its opening price. StockTwits users took to the $SNAP stream in the days leading up to the IPO to share their best guesses. We thought it would be fun to see how close they came to the actual opening price of $24.
Looking at a sample of approximately 1,500 opening price callouts, we saw a mean expected opening price of $21.23 and standard deviation of $5.73. The most common expected price was $17 – $18, with approximately 19% of the investors falling into this range. This was likely driven by $SNAP’s offer price of $17 announced on Wednesday. We see a second spike in the distribution above at the $21 – $25 range with 12% of these StockTwits users predicting prices in the $23 – $25 range and only 24% expecting a price of $24 or above.
Overall, a few of these StockTwits users’ predictions were right on but most expectations fell a bit short of the actual $SNAP opening, aligning closer with $SNAP’s initial offer and underestimating market demand.
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