Tuesday Wrap: So, was that it?

This morning, I sent out a message highlighting a price level in $SPY that might drum up some action…

If $SPY breaks yesterday's lows, we're gonna hear chartists all over the world scurrying to action.

— Sean McLaughlin (@chicagosean) Feb. 25 at 08:07 AM

We didn’t quite get there. But today’s trading action left bulls and bears scratching their heads. Our friend J.C. Parets (many of you know him as the devilishly handsome @allstarcharts) likes to repeat the line: “From false moves come fast moves.” And chartists who were all gaga about yesterday’s apparent $SPY breakout find themselves wondering if they’ve been duped?

$SPY I've never seen a "breakout" with less steam. I don't buy it.. Hedging here.

— Alex (@tweetinghard) Feb. 25 at 11:37 AM

Working assumption is that at least a short term top has been established until violated. Keeps it simple. $SPX $SPY

— David Durand (@SunAndStorm) Feb. 25 at 01:19 PM

Dan Shapiro does a little out-loud brainstorming, and wonders if Hedge Funds who got trounced by their benchmarks in 2013 might be sensing an opportunity to recapture some alpha early in the year by jumping out ahead of an upcoming selloff?danshep55 shared an idea on StockTwits
Meanwhile, Chartists — and all-around swell guys — Ryan Detrick and Greg Harmon gave us a bullish “not-so-fast!” today. Ryan shared this chart which displays “consumer confidence” still at skeptical levels. Hilarious to suggest the crowd gets it right this time? Unlikely. Ryan is suggesting here that we’ve still got room to run on the upside:

Great chart of consumer confidence and $SPX. CC is still no where near previous peaks. $SPY http://stks.co/q01sh

— Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick) Feb. 25 at 11:26 AM


And Gregger had this MUST READ blog post up today that says “…forget the S&P500 – it’s stupid. You should be watching the S&P500 Equal Weighted Index ETF $RSP” (paraphrasing, loosely). A quick look at this equal-weighted index chart shows the breakout looking far more impressive, suggesting the rally is broadening out and thus more sustainable: 

Screen Shot 2014-02-25 at 2.19.17 PM

So is this it? Was that the top? Will the bears finally warm up after a looooong, cold winter? Or is this weeks’ market action so far much ado about nothing? What say you? Chime in by clicking “reply” here:

So was that it? Was that the top? $SPY $QQQ $DIA

— Sean McLaughlin (@chicagosean) Feb. 25 at 02:26 PM


Trade ’em well,
~ Sean McLaughlin (@chicagosean)

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