StockTwits Market Preview 7/9/09

• kileyay
• July 9th, 2009

Alcoa Futures

Futures are up following a sharp drop in initial jobless claims and earnings from Alcoa ($AA). Initial claims fell 52,000 to 565,000.

Alcoa kicked off the new earnings season yesterday, reporting smaller-than-expected losses. The aluminum producer hemorrhaged $454 million.

AA shares rallied, and they’re going for over $10 in early trade. As Wall Street media maven Doug (@wsmco) put it: “AA ‘only’ lost $454 mil last Q, so everything is rosy…futures are positive.”

Overseas

Buoyed by the news, European markets are up across the board. Tech leads. SAP (DE:SAP) shares rose after the German software firm scored an upgrade from Merrill Lynch ahead of earnings.

Asian equity markets were mixed. Automakers in Shanghai got a lift from upbeat sales data. Japanese exporters such as Sony ($SNE) dragged on yen appreciation. The $USDJPY stands above 93 this morning.

Germany

European markets were also helped by a J.P. Morgan ($JPM) upgrade of the euro zone. The broker expressed a preference for German equities.

German equities have lagged, underperforming their Euro brethren off March lows. JPM sees an opportunity.

Crude

A modest rebound in oil prices should help commodity stocks.

WTI crude is trading back above $61, recouping some losses after tumbling 17% — from its eight-month high above $73 — since last week.

There’s evidence that U.S. drivers are staying home. Rising U.S. gasoline inventories suggest crude demand remains weak.

Of gas juggernauts, Chevron Corp. ($CVX) will offer guidance on second-quarter performance after the close of trade.

The Silver Lining

Silver is set to outperform gold, said Citigroup Thursday. Investment flows into gold are moderating while the outlook for silver is improving. Citi sees the ratio of gold-to-silver prices returning to its historical norm between 55 and 60. It’s been around 69 lately.

Silver and gold are both up this morning. Gold is at $914 per ounce.

Data Deals

Retailers are reporting their same-store sales data for June, which look mostly weak so far.

In deal news, Data Domain ($DDUP) has agreed to be acquired by EMC Corp. ($EMC) after rival bidder NetApp Inc. ($NTAP) decided not to come back with a fresh offer.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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