StockTwits Market Preview 6/16/09

• kileyay
• June 16th, 2009

Overseas

Following a pullback in Asia and small gains in Europe, futures are up less than 1/2%.

The Nikkei got slammed, closing down 2.9% and giving up the 10,000 level  despite a rosy outlook from the Bank of Japan. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.8%, and The Shanghai Composite lost 0.5%.

European markets are pushing higher. The UK’s FTSE 100 is up 0.6%, Germany’s DAX up 0.3%, and Paris’ CAC-40 up 0.4%.

Data

This morning a bunch of data came out mostly better than expected. May wholesale prices rose less than expected, while housing starts rose more than expected and permits rose more than 4%

Industrial production which is just out looks mixed with no major surprises in either direction.

Commodities

Yesterday’s commodity correction might be short lived. Crude oil prices are heading back up to $72 per barrel in early trading while precious metals are all moving higher with gold up 10 beans.

Currencies

With commodity declines come dollar gains. Remarks made by Russia’s finance minister over the weekend expressing confidence in the greenback sparked a rally in the currency yesterday.

But that rally could be stymied at a summit meeting of reps from the so-called BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

The emerging powers are reportedly concerned about the value of the dollar in light of growing U.S. indebtedness. The dollar’s status as the global reserve currency enables Washington to run budget deficits without fear of reckoning, critics say.

Watch for statements from the BRIC meeting to impact currency markets.

Spotlight Stocks

Look for AT&T ($T) to see some pressure following a downgrade by Barclays capital.

The Best Buy ($BBY) number is out and looks to be trading down a dollar plus on the number. Adobe Systems ($ADBE) will report after the close.

Technicals

The $SPX made a run at its 200 day exponential moving average in recent weeks, but it retreated from that level yesterday and dropped below its rising 20 DMA. The VIX rallied fiercely, closing above the 30 level.

The failure of the 20 DMA to act as support and the surrendering of the 30 level on the VIX could signal an end to the current rally though the indices continue to trade firmly within the recent trading range.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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