MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday May 31, 2009

StockTwits: May. 31 at 10:01 PM
Thanks Gregor and everyone for another killer MacroTwits Hour!
infovestment: May. 31 at 10:01 PM
@rcline_jr and then what? Who wld keep your ecnomy going after that who wld sell to you or buy fromU if they are all nuked?
trade114: May. 31 at 10:01 PM
economic calendar for this weekhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 10:00 PM
I think the FED will be raising interest much sooner than most expect. Thinking early 2010.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:59 PM
@GregorMacdonald Agree with @aiki14 best hour on twitter. Thanks.
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:59 PM
What concerns me is the violence in the long end of USTs, after months of downtrend from the price highs. @anthonybrown
CR1138: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
One last thought -Inflation is what the FED wants! Its the only sign they have that they’re policy is working.Though not where they want
wallstreet1929: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
ASCO plenty names + result, but many Phase I/II small study groups, or Pink Sht’s, or big names, or have run-up already. Studying further
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
The MacroTwits stream was enormous tonight. Remember, @stocktwits puts up the transcripts of these sessions.
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
@ppearlman Cool thx, know I mentioned before so (I don’t mean to be bitchy about it :)… Yes, comment stream is only 1 I’ve noticed
anthonybrown: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
@GregorMacdonald With inflation looming, how sharp and hard do you think the raising of rates will be? When do you see that happening
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
@bondscoop They were a day late and a dollar short for 2 yrs, they usurped power they weren’t meant to have and then used it poorly
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:58 PM
@ppearlman The missing snippets in the ALL category make tracking MacroTwits interesting..I leave the Twitter page up to track lol.
pdenlinger: May. 31 at 9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald Think it much more likely that TW would go for yuan-denominated trade with CN.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:57 PM
@infovestment Oops, they have nukes too! (China, UK, France, etc.) Guess we have to be nice.
mp7124: May. 31 at 9:57 PM
In Canada we are a little shocked at the rise of the Loony. Employment is getting worse, but it doesn’t matter. Not yet.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:56 PM
@infovestment Heck if we are going to go to war we just commandeer their gold. Let’s break out the nukes and settle this thing.
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:56 PM
@IRON100 Most 3rd world inflation hedgers have a very soft spot for land ;).
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:56 PM
@bondscoop I calculate Fed’s eventual losses on MBS purchases to be around$250BN assuming the 4 & 4.5s settle around $80 in a couple yrs
ppearlman: May. 31 at 9:56 PM
@FinanceTrends tx for pointing out. we’ll take a look. not happenng on the All stream. Also, we’ll hav transcript up on our blog tomorrow
ljjones1967: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
Fantastic day in class – thx all! RT @aiki14: I want to go on record as saying this hour is the best thing on twitter. Thanks Greg
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
We finish up in about 5 mintues. The stream is really humming tonight.
neuropath: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
The masses need more caffeine to pull them out of this depression
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
1 last thing: an interesting tweet from @maoxian on the recent rise in Baltic Dry Index http://bit.ly/11cveo
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
@mojakus I admit to overestimating that speed. I see the endgame so assume it should happen tomorrow.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
@GregorMacdonald I vote for the Loony (CAN) as the next reserve currency. It seems appropriate.
DeepakDas: May. 31 at 9:55 PM
$$ Top US bankruptcies 1 Lehman ($691B 2008) 2 WaMu ($327B 2008) 3 Worldcom ($104B 2002) 4 GM filing tomorrow ($91B) & Enron ($65B 2001)
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:54 PM
@aiki14 so as a relic from pre-brettonWoods foreign CB store gold in NYC&when they want it back that is war?
derekhernquist: May. 31 at 9:54 PM
RT@firstadopter Robin Hood Foundation -Paul Tudor Jones,Roberto Testimony,Bloomberg,Tom Brokaw.Watch and be inspired http://tr.im/mYfc
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:54 PM
@pdenlinger Would Taiwan take short-dated USTreasuries from CN as a capital component of these deals?
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:53 PM
@bondscoop That’s a strong statement considering the astonishing cavalcade of mistakes both of commission and omission they have made
MacroMeister: May. 31 at 9:53 PM
@BWBRadioShow …even beyond contrarians are talented options strategists who buy cheap insurance against ‘quantum’ alternative outcomes
aufaittrader: May. 31 at 9:53 PM
@GregorMacdonald Agreed. Just look at $GMCR the last month. Incredible
Ticker: GMCR
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
speed in expectations is of the essence – look at how TIPS outperformed USTs last week. @Fullcarry @AriCostello
jtsmith24: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
off topic, Eminem is a punk, grow up he needs a godd a$$ woopin
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
Fed’s biggest mistake was to buy Treasuries. Opened up monetizing debt & credit default issues. Better to stick to MBS paper.
traderclubtirol: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
Swiss International Air Lines (Star alliance member) is reducing its services on falling demand http://is.gd/L32W $UAUA $LCC $DAL $CAL $AMR
Ticker: AMR CAL DAL LCC UAUA
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
@aufaittrader I admit no one know what will replace the $. I am betting Gold for historical reasons. I could be wrong.
aufaittrader: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
I second that. RT @aiki14: I want to go on record as saying this hour is the best thing on twitter. Thanks Greg
pdenlinger: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
@GregorMacdonald CN, TW agreement: Let’s do easy stuff first (trade, business) then go to hard (politics)
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:52 PM
@aufaittrader We need to watch the commodity curves as well. As I have joked twice in last few weeks, I am concerned about Coffee too.
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:51 PM
I want to go on record as saying this hour is the best thing on twitter. Thanks Greg
aufaittrader: May. 31 at 9:51 PM
@aiki14 Treasury is a subsidiary of $GS *LOL* Can’t believe you tweeted that *truly LOL*
Ticker: GS
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:50 PM
Can and Aus exporters are no doubt going to get agitated if CAD and AUD keep going. Nota Bene: OZ helps exporters hedge @mikeblair
Dasan: May. 31 at 9:50 PM
Barrons writers like Dasan’s picks – tout $AMZN and $AAPL over the weekend
Ticker: AAPL AMZN
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:50 PM
@IRON100 True enough, but the next global money will be bubbliciously more expensive than other stuff. Like $S are today.
Ticker: S
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:50 PM
@infovestment Again thats an act of war, and you’re either long pitchforks and torches or Guns and K-Rations
SwingTrade: May. 31 at 9:50 PM
@shanedrozdowski I suggest natgas is the logical go-between for oil/alt energy. It’s low now but as time passes it will have its day $UNG
Ticker: UNG
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:49 PM
@infovestment That works for me, the FED was never intended to be what it is, and Treasury is a subsid of GS
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:49 PM
@aiki14 the signal for the final hurrah wld be if a foreign country demands its gold deposits back&imagine the US wld refuse…
aufaittrader: May. 31 at 9:48 PM
@Fullcarry Some feel that crude is replacing $USD; hence its recent surge
Ticker: USD
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:48 PM
@aiki14 then you wld have to shoot the FED and Treasury,as they lead the path to US$ decline,U cant force foreigners 2keep buying crap
mikeblair: May. 31 at 9:48 PM
@GregorMacdonald Viewpoint on CAD and AUD here? They’ve had very nice moves in the last few months. AUD probing over 80 cents right now.
AriCostello: May. 31 at 9:48 PM
@mbusigin fair enough
johnwelshphd: May. 31 at 9:48 PM
$HEB FDA rejection still coming, more trials and more data will be needed. Continue to avoid.
Ticker: HEB
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:47 PM
@Fullcarry Either own gold or own the things that money will chase.
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:47 PM
BTW has anyone here had problems flipping past page 2 of this commentary stream? It keeps showing me most recent tweets
ichimokucharts: May. 31 at 9:47 PM
WEEKLY S&P500 -Very strong overhead resistance if upside breakout- Ichimoku charts video May29th20 http://is.gd/Ksur $SPY SP500 Ichimoku
Ticker: SPY
sawickipedia: May. 31 at 9:46 PM
RT @GregorMacdonald: How close in bombed out US cities to start-up manufctrg costs that are world competitive? JRubin: distance is money
AriCostello: May. 31 at 9:46 PM
@mojakus Yes/But by intense, you mean % move or also speed. How fast does it come, when it comes? Speed a form of dislocation 2, right?
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:45 PM
Whether inflation happens next month or next year really doesn’t matter. Inflation hedges are getting more and more exp.
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:45 PM
At 9:45pm NY Time July Silver is up .26 cents to 15.87. Oil firmer at 66.78 up .47 cents. ASX200 Futures up 54 points. ES up 3.75 points.
Blacksoth: May. 31 at 9:45 PM
Nat. Gas infrastructure in the U.S. is still way behind Europe.
shanedrozdowski: May. 31 at 9:44 PM
RT @infovestment: @SwingTrade natgas is not a global market,EUR is piped to RUS supply demand there has nothing to do w situation in US
esecfutures: May. 31 at 9:44 PM
Attn bloggers using wordpress, recent Image Upload/Insertion error in Firefox is caused by Google Gears, 2 fix uninstall thru Windows
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:44 PM
Someone smarter than me said money is the bubble that doesn’t pop. So decide what is replacing the $ and buy that. I favor Gold.
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:43 PM
@SwingTrade natgas is not a global market,EUR is piped to RUS supply demand there has nothing to do w situation in US
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:43 PM
@AriCostello Think Inflation question is when & how intense. My view: not yet. But as @GregorMacdonald says, either inflate or collapse!
derekhernquist: May. 31 at 9:43 PM
RT @EddyElfenbein: 100-year-old company now being dismantled by 31-year-old who’s taking a break from law school. http://bit.ly/cvx9A
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:42 PM
@infovestment That would be an act of war, and before we allowed obliteration we’ll lock the doors at the NY central repository.
neuropath: May. 31 at 9:42 PM
World trade can never get off the USD-Europe or China haven’t enough currency- talk about hyperinflation
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:42 PM
@mbusigin Mr Gibson of paradox fame would disagree with you ;).
chartingstock: May. 31 at 9:42 PM
Remember To Have Some Sort of Stop-Loss or Options Protection in Place In Case There is A Sudden Drop Good Luck @SwingTrade $UNG
Ticker: UNG
AriCostello: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
@GregorMacdonald not close, I think. Labor pool there is also bombed out (skills-wise) and yet expensive.
gbattle: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
RT @howardlindzon: I just ‘BINGED’ the ticker $MSFT on Microsoft new search engine and picture of a dinosaur popped up.
Ticker: MSFT
voltrader: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
Ten year futures down 14 ticks. Gapped lower 7 on the reopen and off another 7 since. Anybody know why?
CR1138: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
@GregorMacdonald maybe 3 RMB/$ – that’s a ways away yet
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
@infovestment Own stuff (oil, copper, silver, etc.) and foreign companies and currencies.
FerrariSvcGuy: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
@ryamada $SRS $FAZ Me too! What are your targets for exit on Monday?
Ticker: FAZ SRS
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:41 PM
@CR1138 I think Roger’s concerns are valid. Though in very short term I frame Silver action as one of my global liquidity indicators.
SwingTrade: May. 31 at 9:39 PM
@infovestment I like your nat gas thoughts. I am tied in fully to $UNG , the day is coming…….
Ticker: UNG
hene57: May. 31 at 9:39 PM
$SPY US Index futures have turned to upside again and most Asian markets are positive.
Ticker: SPY
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:39 PM
How close are we in bombed out American cities to start-up manufacturing costs that are world competitive? Jeff Rubin: distance is money
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:39 PM
@AriCostello Whatcha talkin bout Willis. This bond guy is firmly in the inflationary camp.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:39 PM
@rcline_jr They only have to continue until they break our bank, and world moves off of dollar reserve currency.
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:38 PM
The other RE trend I’m hearing about lately is home swapping. FT did a story last week & others followed later.
mtrobie: May. 31 at 9:38 PM
paying bills while watching the Cubs get their @$$ES kicked doesn’t make for a good evening.
Ticker: ES
FlashFusion: May. 31 at 9:38 PM
RT @EddyElfenbein 100-year-old company now being dismantled by 31-year-old who’s taking a break from law school. http://bit.ly/cvx9A
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:38 PM
@AriCostello The jigsaw puzzle just grows in complexity.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:37 PM
@aiki14 If they buy USD denominated oil it adds demand on top of inflation. Higher oil price hurts us more than them, and vicious cycle.
hene57: May. 31 at 9:37 PM
@ericcwu $ES_F $SPY for the same reasons they spiked Friday it becomes more obvious that the double bottom will override the double top
Ticker: ES_F SPY
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:37 PM
@aiki14 so very soon foreigners will trade this stuff w/o you,even worse the US might have to sell US$ to then by nat resources…
AriCostello: May. 31 at 9:37 PM
So the bond guys see the deflationary pressures; the stock guys the inflationary ones. Interesting…
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:36 PM
@aiki14 for copper it maybe true,but InEurope natgas&oil is already paid in EUR&China is setting up bilateral ties2nat resource nations
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:36 PM
@infovestment And as greg just said, Aggies , Light manufac, and I’ll add High tech, biopharma and health tech it supports dollar
CR1138: May. 31 at 9:36 PM
Jim Rogers favors Silver over Gold for fear of IMF gold sales in the future. Thoughts?
joemccann: May. 31 at 9:36 PM
RT @carhartl A ripe cranberry will bounce. RT @howardlindzon I just ‘BINGED’ the ticker $MSFT on Microsoft new search engine and picture …
Ticker: MSFT
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:36 PM
@dvolatility That’s true. I remember saying to a friend in ’06 that might happen & there was some foreign RE buying up until that time
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:35 PM
@mojakus @fullcarry LT rates also counterbalancing economy.
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:35 PM
@sawickipedia It’s worth studying the wipeout real estate cities because after they were toast, they did a final leg down.
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:34 PM
@infovestment They buy Dollar denominated copper, it supports the dollar, If the company mining the copper, selling mining eq. tech etc
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:34 PM
US tradable sector will probably be the next growth. All those dollars abroad will be coming back home.
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:33 PM
@mikeblair Commercial RE? Can we somehow turn the malls into productive capacity to build rolling stock for trains? :-) | Looks bad.
kileyay: May. 31 at 9:33 PM
@lrnrav Commercial real estate stocks flying upwards as well…why?
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:33 PM
@lrnrav Hope springs eternal, ppl trade on the fact that the 2nd derivative,rate of worsening,is improving,a fool’s trade
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:32 PM
I do stick with my silver lining view of weaker USD that it will boost buying of our Aggie and Light Manufac sectors.
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:32 PM
also shouldnt underestimate other factors keeping long rates low: pension receiving needs, Japanese currency hedges @bondscoop @fullcarry
traderclubtirol: May. 31 at 9:32 PM
Gazprom of Russia respondes to trends on the global gas markets (LNG)http://is.gd/L1T0 $UNG $USO $OIL
Ticker: OIL UNG USO
downtowntrader: May. 31 at 9:32 PM
also watching these higher risk plays $ASTI $MRM $MTMC $ETWC
Ticker: ASTI ETWC MRM MTMC
lrnrav: May. 31 at 9:32 PM
With all the inherent risks in commercial realestate being discussed, how come the housing stocks keep going up? BZH up 300%
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:31 PM
@aiki14 If they buy commodities,then it is not a US asset…or wld you characterize China owning copper as ownign a US asset?
neuropath: May. 31 at 9:31 PM
Fed’s reflation destroying other countries relative the dollar – it is relative to the dollar
dvolatility: May. 31 at 9:31 PM
Declining USD could also bring in foreign real estate buyers again, they dipped in the market in early ’08 before the fin crisis. IMO
downtowntrader: May. 31 at 9:31 PM
first run through the charts tonight yields the following for my swing long watchlist. $AMMD $WSH $ILMN $ZBRA $TDC $PRU $SPH $TYL $BKD
Ticker: AMMD BKD ILMN PRU SPH TDC TYL WSH ZBRA
sagebrennan: May. 31 at 9:31 PM
@pdenlinger @howardlindzon “bing” can also mean “cookie.” $MSFT is making me hungry now…
Ticker: MSFT
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:30 PM
@sawickipedia Yup. Everything at low end well within conforming envelope. Plus, hangover of saved capital from those who missed 01-07?
bweikulrich: May. 31 at 9:30 PM
@GregorMacdonald Without a clear image of business sector leadership are we doomed to stagnate? Or wait for the bottom to fall in Bonds
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:30 PM
@IRON100 Old industry joke “Exxon, the sign of the double cross.”
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:29 PM
@infovestment They don’t have to lose money, they can buy dollar based commodities at a real discount.
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:29 PM
@mojakus Yr comment on prime mortgages problem remind me of recent@calculatedrisk posts on this issue http://bit.ly/KporR
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:29 PM
@dvolatility What’s really interested me is to study the final stages of the price collapse in Detroit, Sacto, etc. It’s instructive.
mikeblair: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
@GregorMacdonald Current viewpoint on CRE? Seems like the govt is juggling lots of balls to keep these values inflated at 2006 levels.
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
@GregorMacdonald Currency risk overblown for now. IMO.
day54: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
Its early but ES +4.25, NQ +1.75, YM +29 $$$ down gold/silver higher
invetricsDOTcom: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
DJIA moving to 9100 very soon. You heard it here first. Longs will do well, e,g.,$BGU, $FAS, $DDM, $QLD, $UWM. Seet http://invetrics.com
Ticker: BGU DDM FAS QLD UWM
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
@aiki14 the result is still a net loss for foreign invetsors, why would they want to intentionally lose money??
esecfutures: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
Weekly Euro Summary:some key developments last week , charts:http://bit.ly/19L1aR , $EURUSD, $EC_F
Ticker: EURUSD
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:28 PM
@rcline_jr I remember the articles in 1969 and 1970 that mentioned the Exxon squabble int. Thanks for the reference. $XOM
Ticker: XOM
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:27 PM
@mojakus I don’t disagree, my point is we need new buyers to reduce inventories for housing recov
jordanssimon: May. 31 at 9:27 PM
RT @nytimes: A Symbol of America on the Move, Now Humbledhttp://bit.ly/fCrXq $GM
Ticker: GM
Blacksoth: May. 31 at 9:27 PM
Intonation is important in chinese prnounciations (which can result in up to 5 different meanings). This is lost on a lot of people.
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:26 PM
@aiki14 refis are just a form of unlegislated spending. Fed/Treas MBS buying programs aim to put $ in peoples hands, not floor housing
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:26 PM
@bondscoop Thankyou. As you are no doubt aware the currency risk is perhaps the current faultline in the inflation risk chat. Everywhere.
JennAlbright: May. 31 at 9:25 PM
Is this what I need to do in order to post only on the Stocktwits page?
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:25 PM
@IRON100 Those could be the first timers in my scenario, I know the detroit area is advertising in the Aussie papers
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:25 PM
Shouldn’t $16 be serious resistance for Silver?
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:25 PM
I 2nd @fullcarry on macro reasons for LT rate rise. Many issues.
ericcwu: May. 31 at 9:25 PM
@howardlindzon Besides, do we really care what the Chinese think? These are ppl that invest in companies b/c the ticker has lucky numbers
StocksOrGolf: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@howardlindzon…LOST is a great name. Someone from the govt must have called$MSFT & told them to use BING or TARP $ was on the way.
Ticker: MSFT
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@jbuchersghost Thankyou. Yes, that 750K is no where near the conforming Fannie envelope (unless adjusted via recent rule changes) Indeed.
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@IRON100 Actually they did extensive research. It was after they chose the name that the linguists found in a dialect of African lang.
pdenlinger: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@howardlindzon In fairness to $MSFT, they have translated name in Chinese as “bi ying” (always has answer), but “disease” is one syllable
Ticker: MSFT
chriskober: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@ForeverCaroline what are your thoughts on $MGM ???
Ticker: MGM
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:24 PM
@GregorMacdonald No not nil, just later in the cycle. Inevitable but not likely hyper.
Twigins: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
as soon as commods moved off their bottoms, inflation started, sheesh
invetricsDOTcom: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
DJIA ready to move to 9100. Avoid shorts like $FAZ, $EDZ. Longs will do well:$FAS, $BGU, $QLD, $UWM, $C, $BAC, $F. http://invetrics.com
Ticker: BAC BGU C EDZ F FAS FAZ QLD UWM
ericcwu: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
@howardlindzon “Bing” can also mean cookie or cracker, among a million other things I’m sure. It’s not a big deal ^ ^ $MSFT
Ticker: MSFT
TradeWithMojo: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
Oil at the 23.6% Fib line $66.73 $DTO support $72.62 and $UCO over head supply $18.65
Ticker: DTO UCO
abnormalreturns: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
The Sunday linkfest is up. “We need to get back to testing models rather than revering them…” http://bit.ly/11CVCY
mojakus: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
Alt-A and Option ARM resets 2010-2013 are going to catch many owners of “prime” housing off-guard. “I didn’t think it would happen here”
stockerblog: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
Rode on Jet Blue yesterday – round trip in one day. Most of their flights were mobbed with people. Is $JBLU a short term buy right now?
Ticker: JBLU
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:23 PM
@IRON100 it’s the first time buyers who are the biggest losers if the 30 is high $$We need them to come in, Refi’s wont drive recov
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:22 PM
@bondscoop You’re of the view the massive deflation in housing, the zero wage pressure, and spare capacity make inflation risk nil, yes?
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:22 PM
I would still like to emphasize that long end rates aren’t rising in a vacuum. Other macro factors are changing also.
shanedrozdowski: May. 31 at 9:22 PM
Oil futures climbing to new highs from Friday. $CL $XOM $DXO $OIH
Ticker: CL DXO OIH XOM
Blacksoth: May. 31 at 9:22 PM
Anyone heard more on rumours of stock not being available to borrow for shorting purposes?
dvolatility: May. 31 at 9:22 PM
RT @FinanceTrends: Latest FT piece from Niall Ferguson on interest rates, (US) sovereign bond risks, inflation http://bit.ly/ZEyE5
bweikulrich: May. 31 at 9:21 PM
@GregorMacdonald even the slightest hint at a hike in debt rate would probably hurt real estate. The resets are surviving on low %
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:21 PM
@johnwelshphd naked shorting won’t help that, it artificially devalues the stock, you’re borrowing ghosts
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:20 PM
@pdenlinger $XOM did not do research when changing brand name 2 Exxon.It meant “using the bathroom” in Urdu I think lol. (I will check ref.)
Ticker: XOM
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:20 PM
@GregorMacdonald The continued weakness in housing makes all the hyperinflation talk premature at best right now.
MDabbles: May. 31 at 9:20 PM
Spot gold at $979/tr. oz. right now- missed my entry into $GLD friday by 0.10. Will wait to see what happens this week.
Ticker: GLD
Stocksforbrkfst: May. 31 at 9:20 PM
$AUS currently trading at 80.04 US cents, an 8 month high
Ticker: AUS
ljjones1967: May. 31 at 9:19 PM
LOL RT @pdenlinger: $MSFT didn’t do homework. In Chinese, “bing” means disease. Like $GM naming car Nova (“no run” in Spanish)
Ticker: GM MSFT
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:19 PM
@IRON100 By resets I am referring to long-standing charts of next cycle of adjustable rate mortgage resets coming in 2010.
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:19 PM
@GregorMacdonald i’ve been sitting on a House in MD, in that range for 2yrs, buyers want super bargains, I can wait, many cannot
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:19 PM
@GregorMacdonald We are starting to see some real softening in Fairfield CT real estate.
Twigins: May. 31 at 9:19 PM
@GregorMacdonald how do u reflate housing prx when Fannie/Freddie already expect >70% default on the default …. truly sad
johnwelshphd: May. 31 at 9:18 PM
@aiki14 Just tired of brokerage firms getting to pick and choose what securities to lend out to borrow. $OCLS perfect example.
Ticker: OCLS
Blacksoth: May. 31 at 9:18 PM
For all the doomsday talk of hyper inflation (or the lesser sibling) all I’m seeing is the FEAR of inflation.
pdenlinger: May. 31 at 9:18 PM
@howardlindzon $MSFT didn’t do homework. In Chinese, “bing” means disease. Like $GM naming car Nova (“no run” in Spanish)
Ticker: GM MSFT
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
@infovestment I think the opposite is true, if the dollar declines then dollar pegged assets become cheaper to the foreign investor
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
$GC_F $SI_F printing higher highs from Friday,gold&silver now react to the slgghtest of US$ slips MKT
Ticker: GC_F SI_F
ericcwu: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
$ES_F just took a big 5 point upswing, not sure on what news though.
Ticker: ES_F
dbenk: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
RT @howardlindzon: I just ‘BINGED’ the ticker $MSFT on Microsoft new search engine and picture of a dinosaur popped up.
Ticker: MSFT
stockguy22: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
@GotDOCG Just glad $DNDN popped so nice this week I sold 1/3 for nice profit Friday & still have 4k shares to hopefully sell higher
Ticker: DNDN
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:17 PM
One thing that concerns me is a new nasty leg down in US housing. Not at the low end. That has been duly smashed. It’s the 500K-800K area
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:16 PM
$GBP&CAD$ now making higher highs from Friday,b very careful w overnight currencies,the US$ cld be in a total different place in the AM
Ticker: LSE:GBP
FinanceTrends: May. 31 at 9:16 PM
Latest FT piece from Niall Ferguson made good points on interest rates, (US) sovereign bond risks, inflation http://bit.ly/ZEyE5
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:16 PM
@GregorMacdonald Still even last week indirect bids were normal. Not a suggestion that CB’s were reducing duration that much.
ljjones1967: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
RT @howardlindzon: “I just ‘BINGED’ the ticker $MSFT on Microsoft new search engine and picture of a dinosaur popped up.”
Ticker: MSFT
audusd: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
$GC_F this morning? or $GLD when US wakes up?
Ticker: GC_F GLD
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
Anyone care to speculate on a continued back-up in long-rates dovetailing with the next cycle of adjustable resets?
Celtsfan348: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
$OXGN to present at ASCO Monday June 1st. Lets hope for good karma and good results. Good results here helps people who need it
Ticker: OXGN
mp7124: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
The FED and Treasury seem to have a well thought out war plan. Everything appears carefully scripted. Will it last?
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
@howardlindzon I figured if you searchef $MSFT you would be a miniturized picture of the Sta-Puf Marshmallow Man lol
Ticker: MSFT
bondscoop: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
@GregorMacdonald Yes it does keep the issue in the forefront.
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:15 PM
@aiki14 The US treasury and stock market will soon only be attractive to domestic investors,as foreigners lose by US$ decline
dvolatility: May. 31 at 9:14 PM
I’m sorry SHORT fed fund futures, puts!
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:14 PM
@aiki14 The insanity of the long end becomes virtually obvious if rates spike. That is why I am picky with my positions.
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
@johnwelshphd You may want to think that over, it would be the end of the markets
dvolatility: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
hmm long fed fund futures, calls?
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
@bondscoop But it creates rollover drama, and uncertainty does it not to have such a structural change to short end among reserve mgrs?
BearIncognito: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
I’m playing the bull, respecting the Bear, GS:SPY ratio chart:http://tinyurl.com/kvvfh2 (slightly alarming, or no?) $SPY $GS mkt
Ticker: GS SPY
howardlindzon: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
I just ‘BINGED’ the ticker $MSFT on Microsoft new search engine and picture of a dinosaur popped up.
Ticker: MSFT
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
@dvolatility LOL,they hav elost control over rates,the financial industry&its capital needs to stay solvent dictate Fed policy
aiki14: May. 31 at 9:13 PM
@GregorMacdonald And who wants the measly returns of the long paper knowing inflation risk is astronomical?
IRON100: May. 31 at 9:12 PM
@dvolatility Might not have a choice soon lol
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:12 PM
@GregorMacdonald So the US could have a problem rolling over its debt. No wonder the Treasury has been extending mat on its debt.
johnwelshphd: May. 31 at 9:12 PM
I think naked shorting should be 100% legal. Good companies destroy short sellers, bad ones do not.
dvolatility: May. 31 at 9:12 PM
Could FED actually increase rates soon????
chartingstock: May. 31 at 9:11 PM
Continuing 2Watch $GLD 4Likely ReTest of March 2008 & Feb 2009 Highs-Stops Key As Many Major Gold Traders See Retrace B4 Break of Highs MKT
Ticker: GLD
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:11 PM
@infovestment The USD mounted a faint rally attempt tonight. But Silver has been strong since the open.
ReformedBroker: May. 31 at 9:10 PM
@howardlindzon $MSFT is to Search as Hershey’s is to Vanilla
Ticker: MSFT
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:10 PM
@TimothyMorge Structurally what is happening in real time is refiners now buying crude to make gasoline, and diesel. imo.
Twigins: May. 31 at 9:09 PM
coal/CO2 cap gonna be a big surprise, we’ll be thankful we have our own NG & Enbridge $EEQ
Ticker: EEQ
howardlindzon: May. 31 at 9:09 PM
save this @tickerville wrapup of weekly markets and look forward for after Macrotwits http://bit.ly/fmS4j
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:09 PM
$$ and here we go, Asian session begins,currencies moving to highs again, look for the US$ at WMT in the toilet hygiene department,on rolls
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:09 PM
@Fullcarry The short maturity USTs would be more like cash, to trade with. You can also “sell” by allowing maturity. Powerful position.
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:06 PM
We have to remember that NG is not yet a global fuel. And moreso, that North American NG is trapped by geography. UK DEC 09 NG: 8 bucks !
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:05 PM
@Fullcarry I’ve done a ton of thinking this weekend about the structural shift to the short end of the US Treasury curve, by central b’s.
Twigins: May. 31 at 9:05 PM
@GregorMacdonald NG futures trading lower than 7 yr history, know of anything else at those levels (commod’s ??) buy $UNG
Ticker: UNG
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:04 PM
@Twigins Someone who I really respect who called the NG massacre very well the last 9 mos is now saying NG could explode this Winter.
expectingrain5: May. 31 at 9:03 PM
@howardlindzon $IGT will move when the server based game upgrade cycle hits. It should create a huge moat for them
Ticker: IGT
TimothyMorge: May. 31 at 9:03 PM
http://chart.ly/6ekham $CL_F – $CL_F Crude on its highs…Analysts pointing to glut miss the trade once again. 6 more bucks, please
Ticker: CL_F
hene57: May. 31 at 9:03 PM
@infovestment $SPY I agree that monday will be the test, I just expected more of a reaction tonight. FD: I am still long some $SPY
Ticker: SPY
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:03 PM
@rcline_jr I regard “stocks” now as property inside the cone of reflation. Is it good enough property to rise in USD terms? Maybe.
abedross: May. 31 at 9:02 PM
Any hope for $GM? or should I say any miracles? How many lives does $GM have?
Ticker: GM
Fullcarry: May. 31 at 9:02 PM
@GregorMacdonald: Maybe there is hope CN would support USD like the FED supported UST prices ;).
Twigins: May. 31 at 9:02 PM
@GregorMacdonald need things to “heat” up in the US for NG to rally … where’s the sun when ya need it :)
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:01 PM
I imagine people are looking for a USD bounce this week. This recalls the search for a rally in USTreasuries. If you know what I mean.
infovestment: May. 31 at 9:01 PM
@bondscoop the Fed is now only capable to inducing shortterm changes of direction,US$ printing vs treasury vale has reachd tipping point
rcline_jr: May. 31 at 9:01 PM
@GregorMacdonald Dow, S&P and Nasdaq riding 20d EMA. Nasd above 200d. Dow and S&P squeezed up against 200d. Which way will they go?
GregorMacdonald: May. 31 at 9:00 PM
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