MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday June 14, 2009

StockTwits: Jun. 14 at 10:04 PM
Thanks @GregorMacdonald and everyone for awesome hr of analysis.For those who dont know, Gregor’s excellnt blog here: http://bit.ly/15bwtS
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at 10:03 PM
@mbusigin if no econ recoveryfed doesnt reduce balance sheetinstead it growsby definition fed always has infinite liquidity $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at 10:03 PM
@anthonybrown Yes $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at 10:02 PM
The MacroTwits stream is getting so full now, that I always read the Transcript provided each wk at @StockTwits blog. | Good read. $$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at 10:02 PM
@GMRobertson Because there is no economic recovery, only a retracement in asset prices, wide money is still a black hole? $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at 10:02 PM
@GregorMacdonald sure has the potential to shake out that way, but the fundamentals don’t support it yet $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at 10:02 PM
US still the arbiter of the world, though it’s a shrinking, interdependent world. we must be strong or nothing works. $$
anthonybrown: Jun. 14 at 10:02 PM
@gregormacdonald We focus a lot on the $UNG fundamentals, but have they really degraded so badly that this move from $60 is justified?
UNG
SynerjiGroup: Jun. 14 at 10:01 PM

http://chart.ly/rdrenv $USD/JPY – Forex: last close – long USD/JPY + 69 Pips
see chart attached- KD
(intra-day trades)

USD
IRON100: Jun. 14 at 10:01 PM
@pdenlinger And in the crudest form of mathematics, a democracy is half a mob + 1. $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at 10:00 PM
@pdenlinger “Silent enim leges inter arma.” – Cicero(In the presence of arms, the laws are silent.) $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at 10:00 PM
And @ppearlman said: “you know Gregor maybe oil will be the thing that takes us all the way to a big whoosh! and then crash.” $$
Blacksoth: Jun. 14 at 10:00 PM
$$ Thanks again for another Macrotwits Greg and to all the regular contributors as well.
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at 10:00 PM
go here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf read page 24status of usa households march 31/09 no green shoots $$
RiverJoe: Jun. 14 at 10:00 PM

FutureGen Alliance & DOE.. Carbon Capture $ Sequestration agreement update.http://bit.ly/19B2jp
$$
thestockbandit: Jun. 14 at9:59 PM
A Look at the Major Indexes http://is.gd/11Si2 $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:59 PM
@downtowntrader yoy rail traffic says not yethttp://bit.ly/189Xeb $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:58 PM
7 years ago this month, I had beer in an ancient Brooklyn Pub w @ppearlman and we talked about the US Debt Bubble for hours. Memorable. $$
solupsist: Jun. 14 at9:57 PM
RT @pipmaestro: $GBPJPY short at 161.21 Which chart are you watching?
GBPJPY
downtowntrader: Jun. 14 at9:57 PM
looking through charts and at first glance, rails look pretty good. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:57 PM
@Brodieville I agree FED had to intervene in this crisis. But the massive scale of debt/derivative mess is all on their head, imo. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald do agree at crucial transition point noweverything politicsecon iranthe war oil all gonna be a wild summer $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:56 PM
And that top could very well be sentiment driven. Sentiment is shaky I think, at best. Gas prices, mortgage rates, etc $$
xiaoyi: Jun. 14 at9:56 PM
RT @pdenlinger: When real crisis hits, nobody is a democracy $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:56 PM
When real crisis hits, nobody is a democracy $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:55 PM
bernanke lays out what he is doing now: http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021108/default.htm “never again” $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
@GregorMacdonald I hope Howard wants to talk about this on stocktwits TV 2morrow $$
downtowntrader: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
@IRON100 we may be in process of setting the boundaries for a very long primary consolidation with the march lows and wherever the top is $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
@GMRobertson Party has to relax and open up more, but in crisis its controls pay off $$
JohnWaggoner: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
$$ Last TIC report says China has $768 bln in Treasuries, Japan $687 bln, oil exporters $192.
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
@IRON100 Seems like our good friend @Fullcarry was early to tip that damage would find its way into short end. $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
Can we agree that w.out the Fed interventions, we’d be living thru a greater depression, or is there room for debate here? $$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at9:54 PM
@GregorMacdonald John Williams on CSPAN said that Greenspan was attempting keep afloat the economy decades after it fell off the cliff $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:53 PM
@GregorMacdonald disagreeonly hero so far has been the Fedyour mistake their unusual candor as being dolts$$
JohnWaggoner: Jun. 14 at9:53 PM
$$ Coming Monday at 9: New TIC data from the Treasury.Mainly interesting for foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries.
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:52 PM
@GregorMacdonald Lacker, Fisher & Moskow before them should have shut up, listening to them held back any chance of holding this off $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:52 PM
@aiki14 Nothing like high interest safe money returns to cause a quick rout in the equity markets for sure. $$
danielngsh: Jun. 14 at9:52 PM
RT @IRON100 @pdenlinger For now China and US are joined at the hip, one makes stuff, the other eats it and world spins. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:52 PM
@mbusigin fed can back out all the reserve build up in about 2 days $$
zerobeta: Jun. 14 at9:52 PM
@GregorMacdonald Do you see Bernanke being given another term.I know there was talk of Summers for the position. $$
cornholelio: Jun. 14 at9:51 PM
@GMRobertson Commercial Real Estate is in some serious trouble. Shopping Centers, Hotels, and even offices are hurting now. $$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at9:50 PM
@GregorMacdonald What _could_ the Fed do? $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:50 PM
@milktrader I say every one of them says short the long paper until stock plummet $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:50 PM
Of course, the FED operates in a landscape where people like Krugman and Mankiw–who are nothing but food fighters–are respected. $$
MDabbles: Jun. 14 at9:49 PM
RT @traderclubtirol: Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index drops more than 200 Pts. in pre-market, following other weak markets in Asia $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:49 PM
It would be one thing if the FED was impressive intellectually. But as a crew, they sounds like dolts in their writing and speeches. $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:49 PM
Listening to brief audio interview w/ Ron Paul on auditing the Fed & history of past movements to do so http://bit.ly/14dAbj $$
milktrader: Jun. 14 at9:49 PM
Reflation, hyperinflation, China, Fed, US Treasuries. Three-dimensional poker or Gordian knot?$$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at9:48 PM
@AndySwan Agreed – have you looked at max pain options theory?That’s probably why. $$
traderclubtirol: Jun. 14 at9:48 PM
Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index drops more than 200 Pts. in pre-market, following other weak markets in Asia $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:48 PM
anyone reading this made some bucks in residential real estate last few months? how about commerical real estate $$
trader1227: Jun. 14 at9:47 PM
@AndySwan so what do you think about $FXP here? I know you were eyeing it around 20 bucks
FXP
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:47 PM
@GregorMacdonald Agreed, day late and dollar short on every move since Greenspan day 1. Bailouts bigger and closer in time each time $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:47 PM
@mbusigin My concern is that the rate back-up not only continues, but runs right into next re-set cycle. Yes. I have very bad feeling. $$
otcpicks: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
Read about our Stocks to Watch $EWRC $ASFX $HTDS $WNBD $CRXX $SFIO at http://www.otcpicks.com
CRXX
angiezzzzz: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
@chamarsusie, nice trade on $BA
BA
AndySwan: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
Option expiration week. May expiration we sold down pretty good. I expect the same this time around, but no reason to be aggressive yet. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
@IRON100 troubel china is now they own a massive inventory f every important metal and commodity – moght make itmy call they be crushed $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
@pdenlinger For now China and US are joined at the hip, one makes stuff, the other eats it and world spins. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:46 PM
@aiki14 I see this decade as massive FED policy failure. In addition I see virtually no intellectual heft from FED to support the record. $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:45 PM
@IRON100 Unless landlord can find another reliable cop, the cop and his family are safe $$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at9:45 PM
@GMRobertson Do you believe that countries who are worried about China’s growing power will soak up excess USD liquidity? Thinking Japan. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:45 PM
@IRON100 think china very very clever and cornered commodities and drove prices to paint tape to “indicate” a chinese stim occuring: bs $$
akoptiontrader: Jun. 14 at9:45 PM
http://chart.ly/daea38 $TOL – second h&S since Dec. Last one = 28% move down from neckline. If this one gets close, tgt near $12.5
TOL
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:44 PM
@IRON100 China is slum landlord; US is cop. They don’t like each other, but things are much worse w/o each other. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:44 PM
@mojakus for life f me i cannot find one signficant bullish variable in this market butmost agressive speculative thoughts of forecast $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:44 PM
the interest in Bing makes $goog, $msft & $yhoo look very interesting as the big guys position themselves. (twitter itself a hot topic)
GOOG MSFT YHOO
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:44 PM
@GregorMacdonald FED was never meant to have the power they have now, and they were never meant to support asset prices, yet they have $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:44 PM
@GMRobertson The thing I am most concerned about is commodity price disconnect to dollar as China/Asia begins to drive growth. $$
TheStockMentor: Jun. 14 at9:43 PM
Weekly video has been posted. $SPX, $AAPL, $ICE, $TLT, and $TNH among others discussed.
AAPL ICE SPX TLT TNH
mikestiller: Jun. 14 at9:43 PM
How can we quantify US investor demand of non dollar denominated foreign assets on the USD? $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:43 PM
@GregorMacdonald the damge can be seenhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdfless than you think $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:43 PM
@IRON100 What if cop goes to slum landlord and says: “You want to run neighborhood? Here are keys. Bye.” $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:42 PM
@IRON100 i wont go far down this road as no one tends to believe listen – usa is world resevre for next centuryusa is sole way out $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:42 PM
I’m not fading the FED. However, I am now taking view that permanent damage had been done and wonder what will happen to them. $$
mojakus: Jun. 14 at9:42 PM
meta-critique of green shoots is still fact that apart from PMI most components of LEI that are rising are market based (stocks, spreads) $$
TrendTrading: Jun. 14 at9:42 PM
Long candidates: $XRM, $SINA, and $ANEN. http://bit.ly/OGrz5
ANEN SINA XRM
mmeador: Jun. 14 at9:41 PM
@PumPuiMonkey $eurusd we need some confirmation below 1.395 it may seem
EURUSD
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:41 PM
@hianthony the smart phone area really heating up- all the interest shld help all these stocks$rimm$aapl $palmimho
AAPL PALM RIMM
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:41 PM
@GregorMacdonald best reading on this is robert eisner’s stuff (recently deceased) of NW universitystufff he wrote 80s 90s $$
milktrader: Jun. 14 at9:41 PM
@GMRobertson how do traders fade the Fed? Going long US Treasuries? $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:40 PM
@GregorMacdonald My big question is how quickly is dollar damaged by world demand pick up and refusal of foreigners to buy our debt. $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:40 PM
On commercial/residential RE, does anyone have easy-to-read data on debt rollovers/resets for the next few years, broken down by month? $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:40 PM
never ever ever fade the fed yet almost always in important times liek this folks do $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:39 PM
@GMRobertson The chinese threaten to pull back on buying USt’s and the yield cranked down over the last 3 months $$
hianthony: Jun. 14 at9:39 PM
Amazon to Pay $51 Million to Toys R Us (#WSJ $AMZN) http://tr.im/outG
AMZN
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:39 PM
the best spot to make a ton of money in last 30 years in fixed income is when market decides to build a golden calf$$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:39 PM
RT @GMRobertson: as long as Fed draws a breath by definition unlimited bid for us full faith or sponsored debt | need White Paper! $$
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:38 PM
While supply obviously has an effect on USTs it is overstated. There are much more important drivers like credit spds and inflation. $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:38 PM
@GMRobertson What would be said in that phone call that wouldn’t crash our economy or be an act of war? $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:38 PM
@GregorMacdonald not sticking with it i know emperical exp, evidence shows supply demand os 0 effect on us treas yields $$
mbusigin: Jun. 14 at9:38 PM
@GregorMacdonald Agree with more RE lossesHow can you not with all of the exotic mrtg resets coming? $$
hianthony: Jun. 14 at9:38 PM
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion may hint this week at strategy changes vs. Apple #iPhone & Palm Pre. $RIMM http://tr.im/out9
RIMM
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
@GregorMacdonaldi think these jobs will come back slowly but they’ll look different than “last time”. More green jobs promised too. $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
@IRON100 Yes. This story seems to suggest it’s the second death at that facility in a week.http://bit.ly/spAzV $$
S3_jstanderfer: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
Is $GOOG afraid of $MSFT’s new Bing?Rumor has it Sergey Brin is personally involved in building “urgent upgrades”http://bit.ly/18W3FC
GOOG MSFT
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
or Fed could fill any demand China may have for US treas over next year in one phone call $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
Fed could take 100% of all Chinese holdings of US Treasin one phone call and really not do much for or against Fed balance sheet$$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:37 PM
@GMRobertson I’d like to hear you elaborate on that, I disagree completely $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:36 PM
@GMRobertson So you are still sticking with your view that supply has zero effect on UST prices? $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:36 PM
@GregorMacdonald as long as Fed draws a breathby definition unlimited bid for us full faith or sponsored debt $$
VANTERHEYDEN: Jun. 14 at9:36 PM

US Restaurants & Eateries suffering: http://bit.ly/WERdC
? – Sell $SBUX $$

SBUX
QuantTrader: Jun. 14 at9:36 PM
RT @pkedrosky Thoughtful @carney piece on Why we’re headed for another financial disaster http://tinyurl.com/ksql7c $$
my10000dollars: Jun. 14 at9:35 PM
@BAbnkr oh yea? What are your projection on $QQQQ
QQQQ
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:35 PM
@downtowntrader Any disappointment could stir a little fear in the retail investor and holders of mutual funds. Hard to say. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:35 PM
@GregorMacdonaldabsolutely no sign of up trade flows – trust medemand or supply never has anything tous treasnever has $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:34 PM
@Brodieville I really don’t see the Finance or Auto or Housing jobs coming back, FWIW. I think US econ as a shotgun hole in it. Big one. $$
alienone: Jun. 14 at9:34 PM
$BDI – Baltic Dry Index is still very low – even with the run up since March 06 and the Devil Bottom – China Stimulus – current run $$
LSE:BDI
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:34 PM
@GregorMacdonald Why would USt’s get bid on global trade? Doesn’t sound like it would push flight to safety $$
Blacksoth: Jun. 14 at9:34 PM
$$ @GregorMacdonald It seems the US is in dire need of foreign currency inflows.What is best way for gov’t to do this?
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:33 PM
@StockJockey ” the real driving force is the return of animal spirit” i agree to thatsickly bull $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:33 PM
More on housing, from LA Times: A tale of two markets divided by the conforming loan limit http://bit.ly/15njWg $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:33 PM
As I said abt 6 weeks ago: I stick with my trade flows view of USTs. If global trade kicks up, I actually feel USTs catch bid. Started? $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:33 PM
@Fullcarry It’s a reaction though not a driver, and significant as an indicator for sure $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:33 PM
people worried about too much US debt. this thing will really turn around only when cos. are making money again. & hiring! $$
akoptiontrader: Jun. 14 at9:32 PM
http://chart.ly/fqw39k $XHB – housing should move next week, look for brkdown of this wedge into continued down channel.
XHB
StockJockey: Jun. 14 at9:32 PM
One more time – mostly for @gmrobertson – Andy Xie: Tight Spot for Fed, Blind Spot for Investors http://bit.ly/ZyVnu $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:32 PM
@GregorMacdonald Agree, if for no other reason than rel. size of assets involved. $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:31 PM
@GregorMacdonald I agree, equities r following other classes, UST’s & the housing/mortgage mkts, no way we get out for real sans housing $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:31 PM
@GMRobertson Maybe. But what it’s quantifiable that there is not enough capital to support supply of MBS and USTs, I go with vanilla S/D $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:31 PM
Somewhat related to sovereign holdings of UST: any recent reports about the Italian confiscation of 124 bn in bonds at Swiss border? $$
downtowntrader: Jun. 14 at9:31 PM
@IRON100 it will be interesting. we were tilted to one extreme for so long, that a lot of this is simply a reversion $$
METrades: Jun. 14 at9:30 PM
Chemical plays $ARG $PX $APD all look interesting! Cup & Handle patterns???
APD ARG PX
richesinheaven: Jun. 14 at9:30 PM
@RotorYacht I like $LEA right now more than $AXL, however both have been trading well.
AXL LEA
elwalvador: Jun. 14 at9:30 PM
In case you missed my weekend post $HEB may possibly be added to the Russell’s 3000 index http://tr.im/ol8w
HEB
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:30 PM
What if the cop needs conflicts to support his family at the slum landlord’s expense? $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:29 PM
@IRON100 Interesting. The fall is when Marc Faber saw the rally extending to (possibly) last time I heard him speak on subject $$
aiki14: Jun. 14 at9:29 PM
@Fullcarry I don’t think that’s a significant driver, it’s all Sovereigns bailing (or threatening) and inflation risk in the long paper $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:29 PM
I continue to believe the stock market is the wrong macro market to watch. To me it’s subordinate to housing and gov bonds, still. $$
RotorYacht: Jun. 14 at9:29 PM
Bought 11000 shares of $AXL @ 4.16 hop it goes up. Any thoughts out there?
AXL
ElPasoTom: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
$$ ppl looking at old dow of 14000… wishful thinking, we’ll be lucky to see 10k in the next 18 months
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
@ryamada That is quite scary though with the death of that scientist.We live in interesting times indeed. $$
Shag007: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
RT @downtowntrader: In March only 4% of stocks were trading above their 200 day ma. We are now at 70%. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
@GregorMacdonald which us why it is offered as reasonas easier;supply demand never has or had anything to do with us treas yield $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
@ryamada We got an upward revision to BEA US Savings rate to Q1. Also rate now at 620B (IIRC). Demand for UST yes. But shortfall still. $$
downtowntrader: Jun. 14 at9:28 PM
wordens T2108 (stocks over their 40 day ma) has been around 80% since April which is also pretty extreme. $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:27 PM
@downtowntrader have we come “too far too fast” or do we still have about 50% to make up among the strongest stocks? POV is everything $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:27 PM
@downtowntrader There is also extreme bullishness in AAII’s investor polls too. Could be interesting as we head into the fall. $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:27 PM
@ryamada Re: work done by Setser and Swartz at CFR http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/ $$
trobrock: Jun. 14 at9:26 PM
Need some #cakephp help, using $this->Model->saveAll($data, array(‘fieldList’=>array(‘title’, ‘Profile.id’))); doesnt save the Profile.id
DATA
ElPasoTom: Jun. 14 at9:26 PM
$$ So I trade 4 myself & do sum spec 4 my soph clients, vry hard work 4 the results altho clients seem satisfied, new ones weekly
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:26 PM
@GregorMacdonald A big part of the move in USTs could also be due to spread tightening.Junk Bond spreads have narrowed 8%. $$
JosephDad: Jun. 14 at9:25 PM
@ryamada air strike of iran is definitely non-trivial and absolutely couldn’t happen w/o US approval $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:25 PM
@GregorMacdonald What’s the significance that fgn purchases have remained steady, while private household demand has increased? $$
downtowntrader: Jun. 14 at9:25 PM
In March only 4% of stocks were trading above their 200 day ma. We are now at 70%. $$
ElPasoTom: Jun. 14 at9:25 PM
$$ Clients only care about the “why” so much, we as an RIA still have to deliver results within risk tolerance. Bonds, div’s, and some spec
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:25 PM
@pdenlinger @IRON100 While we’re playing the nuclear apocalypse card, leading Indian nuclear scientist killed:http://bit.ly/1l11DV $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:24 PM
Just seems to me supply and demand is so much easier for UST market participants to see than inflation/deflation. (Reserve building etc) $$
alienone: Jun. 14 at9:23 PM
Regarding Iran – US is ordering new bunker busters – perhaps for Iran or North Korea to neutralize NBC – http://tinyurl.com/kt3gr3 $$
alphatrends: Jun. 14 at9:23 PM
subs- video of live analysis is posted $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:23 PM
@GregorMacdonald ifparse out the obvious forward pricing of inflation cpi swapstipsso onimpossible to see demand supply impact $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:22 PM
@pdenlinger I’m a strong advocate of all sorts of scenario-play at times like these. History shows events spiral. Ripples, Reactions. $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:22 PM
China would have to buy USTs so the cop can feed his family $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:22 PM
@pdenlinger and don’t forget Pakistan either, which has who knows what kind of element with the potential to use or export nukes. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:21 PM
@GMRobertson I still lean more towards supply and tech trading to explain UST market. I don’t see “smart brain” calling inflation yet. $$
dvolatility: Jun. 14 at9:21 PM
@pdenlinger lol $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:21 PM
N Korea may choose to make their move just as Iran blows up. US would be overstretched $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:20 PM
Mortgage rates explode upward (despite recent govt. efforts to subsidize home purchases) http://bit.ly/MTwOt $$
JosephDad: Jun. 14 at9:20 PM
@GregorMacdonald a new tone towards the palestinian question i should say. not iran $$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:19 PM
Don’t forget N Korea. China has figured out that they have nutcase on their doorstep which has gone nuclear $$
alienone: Jun. 14 at9:19 PM
@QuantTrader – Or As GregorMacdonald stated – HyperSwan – Event – aka Black Swan – Taleb $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:19 PM
@Brodieville It’s also likely that a domestic Iranian crisis has been very latent last 8 years. Urges have been ready for some time. $$
ryamada: Jun. 14 at9:18 PM
@GregorMacdonald @JosephDad Best analysis I’ve read says Israel will not likely strike unless it has tacit US approval/overflight rights. $$
TriggerNews: Jun. 14 at9:18 PM
@ppearlman Here’s the doomsday scenario of Israel vs. Iran if it plays out – will ignite the middle east.http://tinyurl.com/lmhk2w $$
AppleInvestor: Jun. 14 at9:18 PM
Financials/Banks have been a big part of the rally, but lately they’re a major culprit holding the S&P back $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:17 PM
@GregorMacdonald if Israel gets involved, our hand is forced to take a stand, cards on table, de-stabilizing factors will multiply $$
robpas: Jun. 14 at9:17 PM
$$ Pretty strange, Iranian Election 2009 may = Tiananmen Square 1989 -> Ultimate Result Suppression #TCOT
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:16 PM
@milktrader Nominal $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:16 PM
@JosephDad Hyper dynamic situation: hard line crack-down could lead to global outcrry, new sancs. Or chaos could lead to Israel action. $$
milktrader: Jun. 14 at9:15 PM
@GMRobertson what is the N in NGDP? $$
AppleInvestor: Jun. 14 at9:14 PM
@QuantTrader I didn’t saying inflation, I said HYPERINFLATION $$
JosephDad: Jun. 14 at9:14 PM
@GregorMacdonald macro implications of the iranian elections on the docket tonight? $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:14 PM
@QuantTrader Interesting u say that, as some will tell you that (price) deflation requires no cure & is beneficial http://bit.ly/2MSCY3 $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:14 PM
@milktrader I’m not a big fan of being too precise with inflation, reflation and deflation. These always seem to unfold in reality as mix $$
Brodieville: Jun. 14 at9:13 PM
@GregorMacdonaldi think the worry about inflation is premature, but if investors make it front & central, it becomes a problem. $$
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:13 PM
At some point you get paid to put on a flattener.$$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:12 PM
@GregorMacdonald what is interesting is 120% of change in 10 year note and in 2 year is infaltion risk premia $$
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:12 PM
@milktrader Most people think of reflation as NGDP growing.$$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:11 PM
We should also note the almost textbook blow off selling action this week to 4.00% yield on the 10 Year Note–triggering rally in Note. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:11 PM
@ppearlman think iran is absolutely keywhat is it is first question is it ukraine orange?is it sordid coup? major oil implications $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:11 PM
@pdenlinger You can enclave online now too (I do it once a week myself, sometimes 2 a week). $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:10 PM
@pdenlinger That is a good question. In the case of design folks, there is no reason except to enclave at presentation time. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:10 PM
Purely from a timing perspective, I would not place any bets on hyperinflation save small way OOM call option on HyperSwan event. $$
FinanceTrends: Jun. 14 at9:10 PM
@GregorMacdonald Speaking of rally in property, now reading a post on the “spring rally” in San Diego home prices http://bit.ly/L86MT $$
ppearlman: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
@GregorMacdonald What are your thoughts on what is playing out in Iran presently relative to oil? $$
Natvad: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
$$Mr.Mortgage’s latest report sees a 2nd wave of foreclosures:www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
right with you on the herding gregorhedge funds had to make buckshad to drive this marketsuceeded this 1/4 $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
@GregorMacdonald I think that makes sense. AAII Bullishness indicator is as high as it was in June/July 2008 (cycle high then). $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
@esecfutures Gold behavior suggests to me tug of war currently even between inflation and deflation. imo we are in inflationary recession $$
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:09 PM
Substantial improvement in credit spreads this year suggest labor market should be improving by late summer.$$
pdenlinger: Jun. 14 at9:08 PM
With pervasive Internet/tools and mobile, why do non-retail service businesses need large offices for CRE? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:08 PM
If I wrote essay on stock rally 2 themes would be 1. Reflation and paper currency dumping. 2 Herding/Habitual memory-driven behavior. $$
Satanskeeper: Jun. 14 at9:08 PM
How about royalty stocks such as $CRT
CRT
alienone: Jun. 14 at9:08 PM
@AppleInvestor – agree – Fed is printing funny money – Obama admin banking on BRIC to pick up the debt – US debt is frightening! $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:07 PM
property RMBShas only abated the fury of the rate of decline cmbs is looking to talfat best a bottomno reflation $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:07 PM
@GregorMacdonald I agree with that summary $$
tradingpoints: Jun. 14 at9:07 PM
15 Jun Pivot Support Resistance Levels + Trading Signals Forex $EURUSD $EURJPY $USDJPY $AUDUSD $GBPUSD $USDCAD US$ Indx http://bit.ly/16IZdb
AUDUSD EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD USDCAD USDJPY
UrbaneGorilla: Jun. 14 at9:06 PM
RT @TradingGoddess: @UrbaneGorilla Thanks! @TheDayTrader888 says 15% is short $BID. heh heh* Right mistyped.. 15.9% **
BID
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:06 PM
think this whole green shoots is indication not of new healthbut hangover of spec interest from hedge funds – extreme speculation $$
alienone: Jun. 14 at9:06 PM
$$ Lot of money sitting on the side lines – consumer savings rate up, consumer consumption down – the consumer is 2/3rds of the GDP
AppleInvestor: Jun. 14 at9:06 PM
I agree with Marc Faber and Peter Schiff, HYPERINFLATION is coming, and the Obama government is too stubborn/stupid to stop it $$
ElPasoTom: Jun. 14 at9:06 PM
$$ I have always been a buy and hold investor, but to make money I find myself becoming a trader
GregorMacdonald: Jun. 14 at9:05 PM
@GMRobertson My view in 140 characters is that property–in this case equities–isexperiencing reflation. Zero to do w/earnings. $$
IRON100: Jun. 14 at9:05 PM
@GregorMacdonald Finding real distressed value in raw land currently (here, SC, NC, GA), commercial may have 1 more leg down. Res stable. $$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:05 PM
cmbs has only narrow reed of TALF supporting it rental income and need for refi every bit as bleak as RMBS cira 2007 $$
Fullcarry: Jun. 14 at9:05 PM
@GregorMacdonald Better job prospects will counter rising rates as Real Estate flatlines.$$
GMRobertson: Jun. 14 at9:03 PM
i have neverin 30 years expereinced such a willfully blinded market $$
AppleInvestor: Jun. 14 at9:03 PM
During this consolidation, high lows, fewer and fewer leaders are participating, volumes are dropping to anemic levels $$
StockTwits: Jun. 14 at8:56 PM
MacroTwits Hour with master of all things real @GregorMacdonald starts in 5 minutes right here on StockTwits http://bit.ly/FfK1t

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