MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday July 12, 2009

StockTwits: Jul. 12 at 10:09 PM
Thanks @GregorMacdonald and everyone for joining us tonight for MacroTwits.
ryanmcraver: Jul. 12 at 10:09 PM
nokia is short for a long slow death. sales of low margin units will be all that’s left for them. $nok
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 10:08 PM
RT @InEgoVeritas: NYT: $GS likely to post huge profits on Tue. http://bit.ly/ii1II << Wonder how much is from high frequency trading
InEgoVeritas: Jul. 12 at 10:08 PM
NYT: $GS likely to post huge profits on Tuesday. http://bit.ly/ii1II << Wonder how much is from high frequency trading
tffdo: Jul. 12 at 10:07 PM
short for tomorrow: $CLI sell stop limit 21.25 buy to cover stop 21.57 target 20
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:07 PM
might just be the romantic in me “spidey sense” says iran is most critical mky development this year fwi $$
lockeonstocks: Jul. 12 at 10:07 PM
@GregorMacdonald or if not the army, some of the millions of incarcerated individuals sucking on the taxpayers’ teats $$
tffdo: Jul. 12 at 10:06 PM
2nd long $VECO buy stop 12.41 stop 11.91 target 14.37
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:06 PM
for china and for us all : “shu bujan yan, yan bujan yi!” $$
tffdo: Jul. 12 at 10:06 PM
longs for tomorrow: $TRW buy stop 12.58 stop 12.20 target 15.50
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 10:06 PM
@dmooney9 Agreed but why did Obama even acknowledge the possibility? Should’ve dismissed the idea, flat. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 10:05 PM
@GMRobertson Excuse me? US supports China? With what? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 10:04 PM
My final thought: let’s put army to work building out NG infrastructure: might as well run into Water and Scale problems ASAP. $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 10:04 PM
Thanks Gregor. These Sunday night chats are wonderful. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:04 PM
irony is our true stimulus bill may be for china hah! $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:03 PM
i predict usa does massive support program for china in about 2 years as they implode so as to avoid a war $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 10:03 PM
$$ @powitz Already won – by not losing. Who’s the one hiding out in caves? What allied govt’s self-destructed? Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc?
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:03 PM
@GregorMacdonald i suspect china is the largest madoff national account ever not just inflation total implosion and hyper inflation $$
mmeador: Jul. 12 at 10:03 PM
$usdjpy $eurjpy $gbpjpy yen regaining lost ground.
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 10:03 PM
@pdenlinger I agree, too little attn. given to possible ‘regional’ differences wrt future inflation/deflation $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 10:02 PM
@brodieville I agree,we are seeing the cracks that started to form 20-30 years ago…now getting bigger, takes a while to breach a dam. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:01 PM
the “joker” is that if mkts price usa true power then we could see forward looking mkts price spx at 2000 – but need to shed obama-carter $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 10:01 PM
RT @pdenlinger: @GregorMacdonald I expect inflation in CN this fall (already happening in RE, equities), while US in deflation. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 10:01 PM
@alienone read that Citibank extended deadline for accepting the IOUs & Ca. progressing toward final budget. good news. $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
$$ as an outlier, howbout a “win” in the war on Terrorism. Something symbolic & big, broad – Obama brings home a TROPHY…
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
It’s very true: when you start really taking about scaling up even a big resource base “Stuff Happens.” Water, yes? @lockeonstocks $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
@GregorMacdonald it is here is how: republicans embrace keynes flatten dems in 2010 righteous pub investment unemplyment to 5% $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
At least three major banks,WFC,JPM,BAC stopped accepting the California IOUs after Friday. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
@GregorMacdonald I expect inflation in CN this fall (already happening in RE, equities), while US in deflation. $$
dmooney9: Jul. 12 at 10:00 PM
Exactly RT @beanieville Calm down people, we barely used up the first stimulus; only about 25% or so. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:59 PM
One thing to watch for is growing thirst for LNG derived power in oil exporters, even in Middle East. @mryakman $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:59 PM
why dems are fighting hard here: realize have to have stake in this century or be left behind,climate change is attempt to gain control $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:59 PM
@AbsolutionCL don’t see it happening in our lifetime, but how long can the emperor wear no clothes, pull on a shoestring, etc. $$
lockeonstocks: Jul. 12 at 9:58 PM
@GregorMacdonald problem w/ US natgas shale deposits is potential legislative risk re: fracking/environmental impact http://bit.ly/oSnlM $$
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 9:58 PM
China walks a tightrope b/c to hurt US would to hurt our currency and their massive investment in it. No one else can handle their huge $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:58 PM
@GregorMacdonald – next leg down in CA – IOU`s nonredeemable by large banks – RE next in the cards (imo) $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:58 PM
@AriCostello yes, i do select “no” usa is about to go into 500 year ascendency – cant find any historical model suggets otherwise $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:58 PM
Sadly it is so very, very hard to see how this debt-depressed economy adds a net, new job right now. Indeed. @powitz $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald What is the tipping point that’ll effect sentiment? Some new corruption? $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:57 PM
@powitz good point- who will be hiring, for what jobs, & when? will displaced workers get up-trained? $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:57 PM
@AriCostello UK: Relative Rome: Absolute $$
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:57 PM
@GMRobertson on THAT scale, U.S. has peaked (vis-a-vis ROW), regardless of future U.S. (absolute) growth. That’ll have consequences, no? $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
@AriCostello took almost 20 years before we even could whisper the discredited name of paul kennedy again – i prfer braudel $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
$$ Already seeing CA banks refusing to acknowledge IOU’s. Uh oh.
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
Watch progress of Kitimat LNG which will be first way to export LNG from N.A. (ex Alaska) @pdenlinger $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
1 last link – Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Mgmt. talks w/ FT.com about bond yields, inflation vs. deflation, gold http://bit.ly/3P9NA $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
@Brodieville I often wonder the same…we wont go out with a bang I am afraid it will be with a whimper. But who knows… $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:56 PM
$$ Really seems like everything is hinged to employment – and until we know the rules of the game (Obama’s plans, HC, etc) – NO NEW JOBS.
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:55 PM
@GMRobertson rise & fall of great powers is largely a function of RELATIVE (not absolute) decline… right? (cf. Paul Kennedy) $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:55 PM
I will ask same question I have asked last 6+ weeks: is next leg down in CA RE coming, and will it be rather brutal? $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:55 PM
@nancefinance or another way to ask question is ask where would we be without the advancement sin the fed wall st and markets and reg now $$
JasonABlack: Jul. 12 at 9:55 PM
Buffett’s closely watched freight-train traffic index takes a tumble (Bloomberg) http://bit.ly/ZuXTQ $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:54 PM
@nancefinance think in a decade we will look back see this is wall st and finance finest hour not broke at all $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:54 PM
@mp7124 So who gets screwed? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:54 PM
You have to admit that if N.A. could have lots of NG at 8.00 bucks average for decade, that is great deal: 48 oil equivalent in BTU. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:53 PM
as pogo said “we have seen the enemy and he is us!” dems start to wail upon each other http://tinyurl.com/meoe8v $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:53 PM
Ithink we need a massive round of debt cancellation and bankruptcy to stop the slide. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:53 PM
@rcline_jr $chu made its big move last week, cld be a bit more to come. $aapl a winner in this space is how i see it unfolding. $$
shadow_trader: Jul. 12 at 9:53 PM
$HOG – On GAP might add < 14.50; Stochatics good; Targets 16.50, 17.50, 19.75; Option Expire Week with Max Pain 16.00; Earnings Thurs AM
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:53 PM
RT @mp7124:Resources aren’t the problem. Its the financ’l/econo’c system that assigns values that’s broken. The FED & Wall St don’t help. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:52 PM
@bkkumar the word i used was overhaul- i won’t say “reform” cause I don’t see it that way, but wonder about LT effect on economy… $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:52 PM
$AAPL Ka Ching! RT @boxerconan: Crossing: China Unicom near deal on iPhone (dow jones) $AAPL
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:51 PM
As long as we do not have dystopic econ dysfunction, then N.A. does not need to worry about electrical power, imo @GMRobertson @fleckman $$
boxerconan: Jul. 12 at 9:51 PM
Crossing: China Unicom near deal on iPhone (dow jones) $AAPL
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:51 PM
@AriCostello thanks! $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:51 PM
@GregorMacdonald But will US give them exploration rights? That would be MASSIVE concession $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:50 PM
I had better do some work – bye bye twits $$
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:50 PM
@nancefinance pictures of that domestic stimulus: http://www.flickr.com/photos/candlestick98765/sets/ $$
beanieville: Jul. 12 at 9:50 PM
Negativity bubble inflating again; now it becomes certainty we will see dow 11-12k this year $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:50 PM
@AbsolutionCL i do wonder about that… is the end of our customary way of life in sight? not cataclysmic but gradual eroding. $$
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:50 PM
@GregorMacdonald Thanks for that. Needed the expertise from you. ;-) $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:49 PM
@pdenlinger Where I see the Chinese taking their stake in N.A. NG is in those deposits like Horn River where massive infra needed to tap. $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:49 PM
RT @steenbab: – Here’s the evening briefing, getting ready for Monday’s trade: http://rurl.org/1oep $$
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 9:49 PM
@sagebrennan Nah. We’ve been called a lot worse here in the US. *lol* $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:49 PM
@AriCostello well thats what debates are made of i see usa now similar to the dark days of rome immediately after death of caesar $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:49 PM
$$ @Brodieville : what reform?
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
Resources aren’t the problem. Its the financial/economic system that assigns values that’s broken. The FED and Wall St don’t help. $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
$$ @nancefinance not for a very long time
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
@nancefinance No way to be completely free. Can only lessen exposure. CN govt. blowing big money on dom. stim. programs $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
one son in us army second son headed that way the efficacy and ability of us army is stunning mkt yet to price that i admit $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
The U.S. is the Rome of the 21st century.get a book on the fall of Rome stunning parallels. Will blow your mind. But anything can happen $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:48 PM
how is the health care overhaul going to affect our economy in the next year or 2?? $$
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:47 PM
@GMRobertson That was true for 60 years (after WWII) — but is changing now. The transformation will take less than 10 more years $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:47 PM
@pdenlinger What happened when Chinese wanted to buy Unocal? We said no. $$
TradeWithMojo: Jul. 12 at 9:47 PM
$MS $JPM $SKF $FAZ $FAS $UCO $OIL TALF 40% return can it last… According to Ve… Read More: http://is.gd/1wwRX
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:47 PM
@fleckman No, because flow rates on potential US oil not high enough to change supply. Timeline is long too, not short. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:47 PM
@GregorMacdonald enough nat gas for you to decide against “peak oil” ?? $$
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@pdenlinger how long will it take China to be free of dependence on US for exports? $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@pdenlinger interesting, would like to know more about this. $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
rhubarb pie delicious and healthy $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@GregorMacdonald What would happen if Sinopec wanted access to US NG deposits? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@GMRobertson While all BTUs are not created equal, and up to this point liquid oil has justified premium, N.A. does have mega NG. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@GregorMacdonald new shale oil finds every week lately. massive potential here. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:46 PM
@AriCostello point is the rest of the world exisiting on our backwash – if we crash again ROW goes to blood $$
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
@GregorMacdonald Dont u think that US drilling for its own resources would actually drop world oil price as well? $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
We have the industrial capacity to build anything we want. We don’t have the political will. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
@Brodieville China is going thru massive plan to lower reliance on US exports now $$
agwarner: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
@ex_wirehouse I hope not, $AAPL probably never held him in a “guest palace”
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
@powitz i got tired of eating top raamen and baked potatoes 2 months into the recession. still use coupons, but eat food i like $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
$UNG was one of my favorite things to trade when it first came out, lovely moves and massive, but never took any home overnight unless tiny!
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:45 PM
@powitz We do lots of substitution in this house. I married a NewZealander. We are arbing cheap rhubarb. :-) $$
shadow_trader: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
http://chart.ly/nqvb4c $HOG – $HOG – Held 20ema on Friday 10th; Might take half off before earnings
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
$$ @powitz I don’t shop at $WFMI
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
@GregorMacdonald our nar gas in terms of btu and comp to oil, then combined to our oil USA has greater energy resources than saudis $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
@GregorMacdonald how bout that 2nd stimulus package talk – another bank robbery basically by the bankers – $$
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
@GregorMacdonald Should’ve clarified – Include both NG & Oil. $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
@TalkRetail Did you see J Crew CEO Mickey Drexler on Charlie Rose not too long ago? I was impressed when I watched it. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:44 PM
@pdenlinger China depends a lot on exports to usa. $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:43 PM
$ES_F should continue down to 87200 – 87050 area
cperruna: Jul. 12 at 9:43 PM
09 World IPO activity increased in Q2 w/ 76 IPOs vs. 52 Q1; value rose to $9.9B from $1.4B in Q1. 269 IPOs raised $38.2B in Q2, 08 $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:43 PM
What’s becoming more clear is that North America has massive NG deposits. Of course, scaling up that production is big job. $$
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:43 PM
@nancefinance I think they already have made $GS the uber regulator. ;-) $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
$$ @GregorMacdonald US needs to tap UNG
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
@bkkumar U ever hear of substitution. Don’t have to eat expensive stuff. $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
@powitz The only thing here in upstate NY at Wegmans which is going down is the price of bestsellers .. $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
$$ @AriCostello Japan did have a declining demographic with similar bubble bursts. What made them different was their high savings rate.
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
waxman markey this centuries smoot hawley anyone see this risk? $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
Gut instinct – S&P needs to come down to 450 for reality to sink in $$
TalkRetail: Jul. 12 at 9:42 PM
Insightful & illuminating #retail article: Design inspiration & leadership @ J.Crew. http://bit.ly/T9Dna $JCG
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
$ES_F off a cliff…needless to say…I am stopped out…LOL
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
$$ @powitz we got to eat!
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
@fleckman The US can drill for oil and extract capital. What it can’t do is create enough oil to drop price. Unless in a depression. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
@AriCostello Would say that Asian economies are largely driven by China trade now, including Japan $$
soolebop: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
Does any one remember about 2 weeks ago $GS said start building positions in utilities? Something about a credit disconnect?$$
plynchh: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
$ng_f down 2% how low can this go
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
@jamessta $aapl reports later this week. i think they will blow out expectations, maybe this is overly optimistic. $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:41 PM
@TradeWithMojo Love that term “U.S. Consumer Unit”, wouldn’t want to be the half-person. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
the oil crisis and pretty well the whole energy crisis is a trojan horse to compliment the ersatz “climate change” phoney $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
$$ @nancefinance u got it – $GS rukles
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
Point is — it is U.S. that is crashing — ROW seeking to adapt $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
$$ food, energy, entertainment – our consumption is “going down, down, down” .. those prices will fall.
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
@AriCostello Second that. #urumqi blew up and see no signs of slowdown in Beijing $$
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
After 20 years for deflation/lost decade, I expected Japan to look like the 1930′s — not so (Shiller too: http://tinyurl.com/napsk7) $$
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
@GregorMacdonald So we would have 2 drill here, drill now to accomplish that. We have the tools to bring the resources. $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:40 PM
@AriCostello I’m thinking that sentiment is more just a reflection of recent price movement. $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:39 PM
If only 3.50 NG provided the kind of energy arb to the overall economy that a low price of oil would. Liquid transport fuels huge in US. $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:39 PM
Meat, milk, and cheese are all very very expensive. A cheaper beer can’t hurt either. $$
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:39 PM
@pdenlinger RT @AbsolutionCL Who’s going to audit the Fed? $GS?
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:39 PM
Too many opinions and a lot of chatter – can any one see the market over 1 week $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:39 PM
@harshudeshpande bear mkt strat: buy with as much leverage as you can risk AA better industrial and tech corp bonds long duration $$
AriCostello: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
Sentiment has gotten very sour very quickly; that is good for equities. But in Asia I saw optimism nearly everywhere $$
jamessta: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
RT @rtorcato: 3000 People queue up for the iPhone 3GS in Singapore http://bit.ly/K5eEI
$AAPL $PALM $RIMM
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
@alienone Not likely. Chinese rulers have always had their hands full just ruling China $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
@GMRobertson It’s also a lot easier to convert a petrol auto to natgas than you’d think $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
@mp7124 Bingo .. Ain’t see much deflation there. $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
http://hit-the-bid.blogspot.com good place for some really useful Tradestation code….have to search back a couple months but worth it! $$
TradeWithMojo: Jul. 12 at 9:38 PM
$$ Where did the money go? http://bit.ly/G59Cn Average annual expenditures and percent of total. $DJIA $SPX #MONEY
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
oil should go down to $55 barrel before too long, really. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
@GregorMacdonald agree on gas at 50 cents but isnt nat gas already there? $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
$$ @GregorMacdonald You’re basically saying inflation. That’s been done before(and probly won’t stop ther) Unless I’m misunderstanding you.
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
Food also needs to drop. $$
harshudeshpande: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
$$ tired of staying out of the market but at least I am holding on to my gains, need to figure out a bear market strategy
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
@AbsolutionCL Who’s going to audit the Fed? $GS?
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
oil is about 6% of GDP, down from 8% and has been as low as 3% – every other country well over 10% in oil or oil substitutes $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
@pdenlinger talk about clout with the govt. – sounds like $GE is in a sweet spot? other thoughts on $GE $$
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
@pdenlinger Wondering if scarcity of resources will eventually force China to forcefully take over countries or conduct regime change $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:37 PM
Buffett’s closely watched freight-train traffic index takes a tumble (Bloomberg) http://bit.ly/ZuXTQ $$
sagebrennan: Jul. 12 at 9:36 PM
wow US-based stocktwitterers… @pdenlinger just called YOU out for being “dark” today. This should be a wake-up call to all of you ;-P $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:36 PM
us energy inputs as % of gdp most efficient in world and cheapest it is the non-crisis crisis, more oil than know waht to do with it $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:36 PM
Anyone think it is a good idea to audit the Federal Reserve? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:36 PM
United States needs 50 cent gasoline right here, right now. The recession/depression is so massive: 50 cents or less for history parity $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:35 PM
@alienone After all, it’s not like Rio Tinto has the kind of clout $GS has with the US govt.
DVCSmalltech: Jul. 12 at 9:35 PM
RT @berryjonh: Berkshire Tones Down Risky Business: http://bit.ly/17dPhz $$
srust99: Jul. 12 at 9:35 PM
Right after a 1.7B deal in China Ericsson lands $5 billion mobile deal with Sprint http://ow.ly/h656…on Fire..i do own their stock $ERIC
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:35 PM
Big banks stop cashing California IOUs – http://bit.ly/xBfwL
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:35 PM
anyone else think it would be a good idea ot have an “audit” on stats and model used for “climate change” ? $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:34 PM
@alienone I’m surprised that Rio Tinto didn’t expect the arrests to come. When you get that big, hard to avoid $$
IRON100: Jul. 12 at 9:34 PM
$$ That makes sense to me regarding liquid fuel inputs.
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
@GregorMacdonald Have u read The Next 100 Years by Friedman? Fascinating. Vid talks about labor & ppl http://bit.ly/3EFK4 $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
My fear is that Stimpak is interfering with price discovery that Bear markets bring dragging out the pain. $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
@nancefinance Hmmm, you mean they aren’t? ;) $$
IRON100: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
RT @GregorMacdonald: The essence of failure of StimPak is as follows (imo): the US needs tools to hugely lower liquid fuel cost inputs. $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
$gs not representative of any other companies or overall prospects for recovery. they do their own thing, almost a vacuum/anomaly $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
canada is going to “reap the whirlwind” cdn about to find out they are US province and not part of europe they are not immune $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:33 PM
@nancefinance $GS will keep upgrading the sectors
faithmight: Jul. 12 at 9:32 PM
Markets are open. $GBPUSD is meandering around 1.62 which supports the case for further weakness.
alienone: Jul. 12 at 9:32 PM
Always nice doing business with the Chinese Gov – China President Hu Endorsed Rio Arrests – http://bit.ly/1sWxw5
rtorcato: Jul. 12 at 9:32 PM
EU: Failed business model translates to more music piracy http://ow.ly/h31B (via @njnigh) $AAPL
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:32 PM
@bkkumar i can’t agree. many people are turning angry & cynical toward $gs, can anything they say be trusted or admired?? $$
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:32 PM
@bkkumar maybe white house should have made GS the uber-regulator; more powerful than the Fed. :) $$
stocktiger: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
Weekend Comprehensive Market Newsletter July 13 and several new stock picks for break outs and break down http://bit.ly/EuGcv $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
big econ week ahead: advanced retail sails IP and CU and advanced res construction $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
@GregorMacdonald Most of Stimpak energy spending is pump and dump one shot programs. Not sustainable and mostly wasted. $$
rtorcato: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
3000 People queue up for the iPhone 3GS in Singapore http://bit.ly/K5eEI
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
@GMRobertson Yes someone might do well to assert that natural decade trend is deflation. Global labor, etc. Only FED counters that. $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
$$ It seems until anybody really knows the cost of doing business in US (adoption/rejection) of Obama’s plans (HC, etc.) = NO NEW JOBS
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
Canadian problems will also generally trail because of large # of gov’t workers. Problems will be next year’s tax time. $$
bkkumar: Jul. 12 at 9:31 PM
$$ GS will prop the market
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:30 PM
The essence of the failure of the StimPak is as follows (imo): the US needs tools to hugely lower liquid fuel cost inputs. $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 9:30 PM
$$ @GregorMacdonald Your suggestion of MORE credit to deal with debt doesn’t seem to address underlying problem. Could you explain further?
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:29 PM
@beanieville So, maybe we should reprogram it before more goes out the door (and is wasted). $$
moorehn: Jul. 12 at 9:29 PM
Nice NYT article on Goldman blowout of $2bn in earnings. Compares $GS traders to “orcs.” Good Bookstaber quote too. http://bit.ly/Aof6w
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:29 PM
oscillatn between inf deflation only a function of fed res – fed will have no trouble to reduce reserves when has to – def is risk $$
TimOBrienNYT: Jul. 12 at 9:29 PM
Microsoft’s Bing Starts Strong in Web Search and Keeps Climbing http://bit.ly/YMZm7 (via NYT) #google $goog $msft
nancefinance: Jul. 12 at 9:29 PM
@IRON100 you’d think a high-end place like Nantucket would have more insulation. Parts do. Spring saw two $10mm homes sell. V. uneven. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:28 PM
Mood of US stocktwitters really dark today; you guys need Kunstler to cheer you up $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:28 PM
@mp7124 Exports to US mstly come from Ontario, which is getting royally shafted. First time ever that it’s set to receive xfer payments. $$
lasertrader: Jul. 12 at 9:28 PM
Short idea charts going into the week http://tinyurl.com/mqeoml $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:27 PM
You folks know my view: there’s no need to raise only one flag: we are oscillating between deflation and inflation all decade. $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:27 PM
@Brodieville It is out there somewhere, but when it hits “whoa Nellie”. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
cheap dollar and getting cheaper is sign of the hegemon and the power; when dollar richens is sign we are in decline $$
jtjn: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
RT @jtjn: Hoping SNL does a Lenny impersonation…OK?…meaning…OK?….the bottom line is… http://bit.ly/gO440 $JPM
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
Canada is very reliant on exports to US. A slowdown in the US should be effecting us more but apparently isn’t. $$
beanieville: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
Calm down people, we barely used up the first stimulus; only about 25% or so. $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
@powitz Possible. I think GPs making house calls will come back $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
@Brodieville Just heard Donald Coxe say this weekend that Canadian response to “financial crisis” was far saner than US, Europe $$
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
@rcline_jr inflation a couple of years away. $$
thestockbandit: Jul. 12 at 9:26 PM
Video Overview of Indexes as we head into a brand new week http://is.gd/1wpnA – Go get ‘em! $$
chartsandcoffee: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
Sunday Night Coffee from Charts and Coffee: http://bit.ly/jGgnt $$
sonnyrock5: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
@TheMarketOrder I remember when $FCX was too cheap @ $50.00. . . .then it went to $15. . be careful!!
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
dollar will not appreciate with deflation will cheapen as we eventually export deflation to others and destroy their terms of trade $$
R_McCracken: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
Back from fantastic wedding in LA to find my luggage was lost, STL is a clusterf%$k for all star game, and my cable box is broken. Awesome.
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
@pdenlinger I think Bernanke, who wrote his big paper on Credit Transmission, may have to write another chapter. $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
@pdenlinger I meant real estate being converted and used for medical, health services… $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
@GMRobertson Inflation a worry if Fed can’t suck out money fast enough on recovery, since no recovery no worry (yet). $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:25 PM
@mp7124 Unlike Europe and US, Canadian bankers did not go to Las Vegas $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
the risk free forwrd rates show bloom of rose of green shoots – headed back to abyss $$
diver2anne: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
@GregorMacdonald My biggest worry is re your earlier post (education)– no history, no literature, science, psycholoogy? $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
$$ so if we all seem to be in the Deflation camp tonight, just how much will the dollar appreciate – if it is the currency of choice?
Brodieville: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
@mp7124 Canadian banks never got into trouble over mortgage derivatives, is what i’ve read. some paying good dividends too $$ $bmo
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
@keithshepard Nice article but do you really think those stats compare to the crisis we are having now? Sorry. skeptical of the koolaide $$
lasertrader: Jul. 12 at 9:24 PM
Long Idea Charts going into the week http://tinyurl.com/muw2nk $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:23 PM
@powitz Looks to me like ppl will have to shop for their own packages. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:23 PM
folks you got to crack some basic text i suggest ritter on the Fed – there is absolutely no signs of any inflation or precursors of inf $$
mp7124: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
@GregorMacdonald. I’m puzzled. Conditions in Canada are much better than US and Europe. $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
@GregorMacdonald Warren B. says the stimulus had too much political goodies, now we may need a real one. Those goodies are costing us. $$
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
$GS doesn’t service but will be interested to hear $JPM #s on commercial & residential losses this week
diver2anne: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
RT @pdenlinger: Fact is unless you are in retail, services businesses won’t need CRE. Tools exist to do things on Internet cheaper. $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
@pdenlinger – what about medical and health care service? $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:22 PM
@GregorMacdonald You could say we already have it for the biggest borrowers in the form of monetisation, I guess .. $$
Blacksoth: Jul. 12 at 9:21 PM
$$ @GregorMacdonald Re:Biblical debt jubilee — Assuming its done, wouldn’t that amount to taking money out of the system? How is that good?
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:21 PM
@fleckman We might take a look at Japan’s fertility rate in lost decade. IIRC aggregate effect of young not getting married: less kids. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:21 PM
was watching “bronx burning” mostly about yankees but sobering to remembe rNYC in 70s – yes, CA can go bankrupt $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:20 PM
@TraderKos Fact is unless you are in retail, services businesses won’t need CRE. Tools exist to do things on Internet cheaper. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:20 PM
what the heck is a “debt jubileee” home mortgage debt in many sectors alreayd a de facto repudiated 30% $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:20 PM
@mbusigin We already have quasi-state jubilee. It’s just getting stuffed into one end of the horse. Why not stuff it into other end? $$
KeithShepard: Jul. 12 at 9:20 PM
@AbsolutionCL Myth Busting: The Golden Cross and a Downtrending 200MA: http://tr.im/s2Yp $SPX
fleckman: Jul. 12 at 9:19 PM
@powitz @GregorMacdonald – BINGO!! New baby boom. Countries will be competing for labor. IMHO $$
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 9:19 PM
How long to get thru the oversupply of residential & cmmcl RE is a huge unknown. 2 5 10 years? With rising unemployment, throw a dart $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:19 PM
deflation always starts and is wage deflation – that showed first signe two weeks ago houston we have deflation $$
pdenlinger: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
@GregorMacdonald Credit card bonfires? $$
mikestiller: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
@GregorMacdonald i like that. need places to produce all the “stuff” once we rebuild and create. $$
mbusigin: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
@GregorMacdonald You’ve wondered that outloud before, which makes me wonder how you think it remotely probable? $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
RT @The_Real_Fly: DEFLATION CANNOT HAPPEN WHILE THE PRESSES ARE PRINTING, FACT! $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
More food for thought from Big Picture blog: “Commercial RE is a time bomb” http://bit.ly/18H6el $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:18 PM
@TraderKos That drywall detail is traji-comic. I actually did some drywall back in my college days. Bad drywall is a nighmare. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:17 PM
no one sees Keynes is cap letter “L” Liberal, not a dem liberal – all Repub have to do is embrace him retake house, WH crisis over $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:17 PM
@powitz Actually I wonder if the only cure will be a biblical debt jubilee. $$
TraderKos: Jul. 12 at 9:16 PM
@GregorMacdonald Then you get blders like $LEN w/400 homes in FL; defective China drywall. Not getting any better http://bit.ly/15ADyF $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:16 PM
@mikestiller There could be some marginal utility of large roof CRE as solar farms. Retail space converted to low marg/coop biz? $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:16 PM
@KeithShepard isn’t the “golden cross” only valid if the 200 MA is rising…not falling…?? $$
ivanhoff: Jul. 12 at 9:16 PM
I believe that the average housing price will continue to move down or at best sideways for next 5 years. U can hedge the decline via $DMM
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:15 PM
cure for all this is to reopen borders to imigration – i cant prove it, but always suspect harrasing mexican illegals led to RE crash… $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:15 PM
Long $ES_F right now from 87625..looking for it to bust out of the nightly high
KeithShepard: Jul. 12 at 9:15 PM
http://chart.ly/wpytp3 $SPX – $SPY Update of SMA “Golden Cross”. Under threat of recent pullback, but still intact. SMA < EMA
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:14 PM
@FinanceTrends In my opinion the low end of RE has been ravaged, but the 600K-900K area is staring into abyss. $$
tradingpoints: Jul. 12 at 9:14 PM
http://chart.ly/tvpkdn $CL_F – Crude Oil is within price and time window for a potential major low
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:14 PM
isnt nat gas and these monster gas field finds making a mockery of alternative energy cap ex projects an also proce of oil and peak oil? $$
powitz: Jul. 12 at 9:14 PM
@GregorMacdonald Is the cure for all of this a new baby boom?? $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
I have been slowly building short positions in companies like $COF and $AXP…they are NEVER going to get all of that $ back from consumers!
mattrixDOTinfo: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
$$ @gregormacdonald Do you have any good ideas for a macro hedge that can be put on in anticipation of CRE declining?
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
@rcline_jr Might not go as far as the farmer model, but paying homebuilders to either bulldoze them? $$
diver2anne: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
@GregorMacdonald Which town, Gregot? Know the area very well. $$
Valuecruncher: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
Interactive comparator analysis of Coca-Cola ($KO) – vs $PEP, $CCE, $LSE:CBRY and $PBG. http://bit.ly/SKKoI – you can change the peer set.
mikestiller: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
local is the new local. strip mall locations will be replaced with farmers markets? what else? $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:13 PM
live in westchester county finally significant drop in RE here in high end those showed at 1.4 MM now 800M and do not trade $$
FinanceTrends: Jul. 12 at 9:12 PM
@GregorMacdonald But are prices dropping enough to keep up w/ reality of increased inventory, lowered pool of pot. buyers? $$
IRON100: Jul. 12 at 9:12 PM
@Psando $FDO when market recovers and their sales fade a bit. They raze, sell steel, sell land, and take net profits.
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:12 PM
@Psando Perhaps we can use malls to employ millions making notional thought-widgets. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:12 PM
kalecki-levy on earnings (google it) show with “0″ public sector investment we are headed to $40 for SPX earnings 8X multiple = 320 $$
AbsolutionCL: Jul. 12 at 9:12 PM
RT @steenbab: The Cumulative Adjusted TICK: chart and a non-confirmation: http://rurl.org/1oef $$
IRON100: Jul. 12 at 9:11 PM
@Psando In this market, $FDO is using the same strategy they used in NC, VA after 89-91 dip, they are building steel buildings at low cost.
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:11 PM
I spent the last 6 days in a town of pretty high end RE: inventory is exploding, prices are dropping, and nada is transacting. $$
Psando: Jul. 12 at 9:10 PM
@IRON100 @gregormcdonald have noticed vacant shopping outlets become vacant except the $fdo’s of the world stay or move in.$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:10 PM
personal income up solely on transfer payments otherwise -2% wage deflation , savings go to 7% no keynesian offset to savings $$
tradingpoints: Jul. 12 at 9:09 PM
13 Jul $CL_#F Crude Oil commentary for multiple time-frames http://bit.ly/vu9q8 Commodity Daily Signals, Pivots, Levels http://bit.ly/17Empq
ivanhoff: Jul. 12 at 9:09 PM
For the next 6 months the only card that the bulls have left to play is called inflation. If commodities don’t move up, nothing will $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:09 PM
figure shot of the real crash occuring this fall the “real crash” note the drama hah $$
MDabbles: Jul. 12 at 9:08 PM
Finz.tv Trader Chat w/ Jeffry Lin: Corey Rosenbloom Pt. 1 – Afraid to Trade, Flags, & Trading Methods http://bit.ly/yZaxS $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:08 PM
good poing TALF CMBS starts this month gonna have any impact or crash in rentals and occupancy gonna prevail? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:07 PM
@IRON100 @howardlindzon However, the genius who arbs CRE to the govt, for example, will do well. $$
chartingstock: Jul. 12 at 9:07 PM
$GS Remembering GS Earnings Call Summer’08-”Great Earnings”=Rallied 4Pre #Mkt &Then GS Slashed Forecasts 4Most Other Banks Helping $SPX Drop
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:07 PM
has obama passed the rubicon is this his recession/depression now? or can he keep blaming aig and exec bonus? obama now wearing this? $$
mattrixDOTinfo: Jul. 12 at 9:06 PM
$$ If gold drops would China switch to buying gold instead of US Treasuries? Implications for treasuries?
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:06 PM
@IRON100 I drove past typical box and strip ugliness today and said “well, at least all of THAT will go away.” $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:06 PM
yes sorta providing a softball there is no stimulus now is that critical? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:05 PM
@howardlindzon Gold looks terrible. I think it smells the next leg of housing deflation. Of course, if true, then FED money flood cometh. $$
chartingstock: Jul. 12 at 9:05 PM
$GS Remembering GS earnings Call Last Summer-When GS Had “Great Earnings” Rallied 4 Pre #Mkt &Then Slashed Earnings 4 $XLF Helping $SPX Drop
tradingpoints: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
http://chart.ly/tvpkdn $CL_#F – Crude Oil is within price and time window for a potential major low
howardlindzon: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
@IRON100 its always darkest before the dawn but I would rather invest in startups that CRE :) $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
importance of iran? $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
@GMRobertson There is no stimulus. Everything we warned of in Winter has come to pass. They even had a transmission prob w/stimulus. $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
large wage deflation starting? $$
howardlindzon: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
hey @gregormacdonald it looks like not just the ,arket but maybe gold is at least technical kaput…thought and what t could mean? $$
shanedrozdowski: Jul. 12 at 9:04 PM
Weekly stock market outlook for next week, 7-13-2009. http://bit.ly/Xqwnf #mkt #trading #finance $SPX $ES_F $FAS $FAZ $INTC $MO $YM_F $UYG
StockJockey: Jul. 12 at 9:03 PM
@GregorMacdonald Throw in a downscaled PPIP from maybe $1 Trillion envisioned to only $40 billion and double ouch $$
rcline_jr: Jul. 12 at 9:03 PM
@GregorMacdonald Should we pay home builders not to build homes? (To reduce excess inventory) Ala, paid farmers not to grow crops … $$
GMRobertson: Jul. 12 at 9:03 PM
$$ most important to me: 1) is there stimulus? 2)spread between nat gas and oil 3) seriousness of long term unemployment
IRON100: Jul. 12 at 9:02 PM
@GregorMacdonald and my big question on CRE is that will technology prevent the need for so much of it when costs being cut. $$
howardlindzon: Jul. 12 at 9:02 PM
Sorry for bad links – @theEquilibrium new weekend best of chartly for @stocktwits http://bit.ly/RSp1A $$
GregorMacdonald: Jul. 12 at 9:01 PM
Get yer Case-Shiller hats on. |MacroTwits starts now.| Despite 2+ years off the RE top, we are now mixing a job loss trend on top. Ouch. $$
StockTwits: Jul. 12 at 8:50 PM
The best hour on Twitter – MacroTwits Hour with @GregorMacdonald coming up in 10 min on StockTwits.. http://bit.ly/FfK1t

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