MacroTwits Transcript: Sunday Apr 26, 2009

StockTwits: Apr. 26 at 10:04 PM
another great MacroTwits session; thanks Gregor. be sure to stop by every Sunday 9pm EDT for MacroTwits with @gregormacdonald
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 10:04 PM
RT @nancefinance: here’s solution for the fed balance sheet: divide into ‘good’ fed and ‘bad’ fed. problem: who makes policy? :)
TheStalwart: Apr. 26 at 10:04 PM
Will swine flu go down as the pin that broke the bacon bubble? Let’s see what shares of Smithfield Farms $SFD do tomorrow.
Ticker: SFD
stoktrdr: Apr. 26 at 10:04 PM
@IRON100 Have you ever owned any investment properties?
rechtsteiner: Apr. 26 at 10:04 PM
The only outcome of the $LLNW v. $AKAM is a merger. The question is who takes who out before $CSCO enters the larger CDN fray.
Ticker: AKAM CSCO LLNW
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 10:03 PM
@nicholsong IMO, devaluation and default are near to each other on spectrum. Especially when devaluation gets aggressive.
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 10:03 PM
@GregorMacdonald or DEFAULT and renege on its debt.
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 10:03 PM
@iron100 – true, location, wouldn’t want to own any part of FtMac right now
nicholsong: Apr. 26 at 10:02 PM
@GregorMacdonald Devaluation or default?
marco_gil: Apr. 26 at 10:02 PM
Market is definitely headed lower this week. Lower volume last week provided a glimpse of what was to come this week.
BuyOnTheDip: Apr. 26 at 10:02 PM
http://chart.ly/w6x24s $END – up 188% YTD. the ENDEAVOUR flag.
Ticker: END
Mottipeer: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
“Don’t fight the trend and thats all there is to it”, I’m surprised to see so many shorts here
beanieville: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
@Dallasspaniard holy cow, is that the wrong link?
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
@Trophykw affirmative mas clavos
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
We have to refresh a question which started last year-which is how does the FED survive this ultimately. Balance sheet is nuke stockpile.
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
@Twigins It is all about LOCATION :)
infovestment: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
@nicholsong “at any cost’ they mean it literally,wait until Bernie has fully inflated the balance sheet…
stockgod: Apr. 26 at 10:01 PM
no matter what anyone says, i think shorts should be ready to cover $BACtomorrow or they’ll burn. be careful with $FAZ..
Ticker: BAC FAZ
Dallasspaniard: Apr. 26 at 10:00 PM
http://twitpic.com/42w34 – $WFC is looking a lot more bullish to me now
Ticker: WFC
marco_gil: Apr. 26 at 10:00 PM
RT @kunal00 http://chart.ly/f9nhks $SPY, accumulation pattern still in effect.Still the big decline in volume is a little troubling. Agreed!
Ticker: SPY
wwwstockrake: Apr. 26 at 10:00 PM
Anyone buying $NVAX with the .50 cent + gap up?
Ticker: NVAX
nicholsong: Apr. 26 at 9:59 PM
Seems like the FED is living up to their 2002/3 promise to fight deflation ‘at any cost’, including shooting their balance sheet wad now.
abnormalreturns: Apr. 26 at 9:59 PM
The Sunday linkfest is up. Is it a good sign that “junk stocks” are leading this stock market rally? http://bit.ly/ZjmF9
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 9:59 PM
There is little deflation when you close ops vs selling at a loss to protect cap invest. … if land <50% of purchase, what r u protectng
nicholsong: Apr. 26 at 9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald food & energy are the 2 places that aren’t going to deflate. I see plenty of demand destruction for other deflation.
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:57 PM
@GregorMacdonald That’s correct: those who get deflation don’t need it; it never gets that far out to the perimeter or in the cycle
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:57 PM
I just don’t see how the FED takes it back. Just imagine them starting to sell that steaming pile back into the market. Oh man.
pdenlinger: Apr. 26 at 9:57 PM
Changes have come fast, but as usual, people have not adjusted quickly enough.
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:56 PM
@Finance_Info If only that pork ban could extend to Congress lol
fortune8: Apr. 26 at 9:55 PM
$$ swine flu – last one in is a rotten egg.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:55 PM
RT @nicholsong Yeah, look at FED’s balance sheet, good luck deflating with that toxic mess when the time comes.
matthieu_stone: Apr. 26 at 9:55 PM
Canada, Brazil and Australia – major exporters with a respect for contract and facilities for swift exports – $EEM
Ticker: EEM
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:55 PM
@GregorMacdonald Marty Feldstein for example is a good proxy for central bank thinking where risk of inflation is necessary given threat
hedgefundinvest: Apr. 26 at 9:55 PM
ES: For those that remember the $VOW short squeeze from late last year… an interesting turn of events. Bloomberg http://bit.ly/42Z15
nicholsong: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
Yeah, look at FED’s balance sheet, good luck deflating with that toxic mess when the time comes.
colindean: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
hey stock folks, I wrote blog about about my recent renewed interest in stocks$SBLK $DSX $VG $COIN $TSM http://tinyurl.com/dklefo
Ticker: COIN DSX SBLK TSM VG
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
@stoktrdr I own a fair amount of well positioned raw land. I decided last year to hang onto it as a hard asset hedge against inflation.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
Much of humanity would love some Deflation–especially in food, and petrol. Not going to get it.
InEgoVeritas: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
@mikestiller Will be watching 10 yr yields closely. If they are headed for 3.5%, watch what the Fed will do next.
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:54 PM
@GregorMacdonald indeed the deflationary risk as perceived by the authorities leads them to risk full well inflation
LordByron1: Apr. 26 at 9:53 PM
Re swine flu, thoughts as to whether any of these drug ETFs will profit: $PPH,$XPH, $IHE, $PJP, $IXJ ? Other ideas?
Ticker: IHE IXJ PJP PPH XPH
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:53 PM
@GregorMacdonald Exactly, overreaction pendulum (in this case monitization) ultimlately will eventally swing 2 inflation as spigot runs.
wind4me: Apr. 26 at 9:53 PM
@GregorMacDonald China needs Corn, $GRO and $SEED, play on commodities and inflation and China
Ticker: GRO SEED
CTGFutures: Apr. 26 at 9:52 PM
$USDJPY as per tonights Trade Plan – market moves against us for a loss of 25 PIPS. http://tinyurl.com/cpwxrb
pdenlinger: Apr. 26 at 9:50 PM
@GregorMacdonald Has been rice inflation in Thailand, Sri Lanka for some time. Putting pressure on the poor.
amuhr: Apr. 26 at 9:50 PM
heading any lower on vehicle sales?? http://is.gd/uM55
sparkycollier: Apr. 26 at 9:50 PM
$$ burn your wall street journal, turn off cnbc, and instead follow@GregorMacdonald and join http://stocktwits.com for macrotwits etc fb
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:49 PM
@pdenlinger That’s what worries me. You look at global grain prices. They are not dirt cheap. Meanwhile, yields not expected to ramp.
wind4me: Apr. 26 at 9:49 PM
@GregorMacDonald I got a Contango killling me cause I want to buy $UNG but the supply/demand/storage keeps me from pulling trigger
Ticker: UNG
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:49 PM
@Fullcarry ok, not familiar. will research.
hedgefundinvest: Apr. 26 at 9:49 PM
@GregorMacdonald Might be best to think of it as a spectrum vs. binary: deflation, disinflation, reflation, inflation, hyperinflation.
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:49 PM
$$ Gold will eventually bust through the 1100 area and move higher…will try to demonstrate that in blog later tonight.
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
@GregorMacdonald Hayek’s best contribution was his cycle theory; we can see inflation in some places or times and deflation in others
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
$$ I say the point is moot, buy any weakness on the way back into the 680 or 700 area (or even right now because)…
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
@TradeBeast Interestingly, Swineflu could function as a dampener of bear market rally, thus breathing new life a week or two from now.
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
IMO inflation already started with rise in bulk shipping, that will take out existing inventories faster than replace, re capacity
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
@GregorMacdonald I still think its headed higher…the real question is…is 910 or so the stopping point on this rally.
pdenlinger: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
@GregorMacdonald Already early signs of food inflation in Asia. Rice prices up 30-40% in Hong Kong over past six months.
fleckman: Apr. 26 at 9:48 PM
@GregorMacdonald If unrecognizable, then how do we prepare 4 start of hyperinflation?
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:47 PM
@GregorMacdonald i do like that metaphor that u used of winged feet of the runner sneaking inflation in
amuhr: Apr. 26 at 9:47 PM
interesting chart – us xports to china, fra, jap, ger, mex, can & ukhttp://twitpic.com/42v8b
Fullcarry: Apr. 26 at 9:47 PM
@mikestiller I am thinking about prior episodes before the default episode.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:46 PM
No talk of Gold tonight, so far. Noted!
TradeBeast: Apr. 26 at 9:46 PM
$$ Swine flu to end bear maket rally! futures have opened down significantly on the Flu news.
plasm0Stocks: Apr. 26 at 9:46 PM
RT @infoarbitrage: Uh oh – the SEC beginning to scrutinize the use of Twitter by corporates http://bit.ly/1adVyA Bound to happen!
DeepakDas: Apr. 26 at 9:46 PM
Corporate officers, be careful what you say in ur blogs/tweets http://bit.ly/iW9FLTweets must be SEC compliant & include disclaimer!!
KiddJones: Apr. 26 at 9:46 PM
$CLF closed above the $21.50 resistance and could be a new support level if it builds on the close. Earnings Wednesday
Ticker: CLF
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:45 PM
@KiddJones Well you nailed it, I didnt think it would pop.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:45 PM
We have to be prepared that when first baby steps of hyperinflation start, it will be unrecognizable.
amuhr: Apr. 26 at 9:45 PM
http://chart.ly/n82689 $SPY – chart – us xports to china, fra, jap, ger, mex, can & uk
Ticker: SPY
aaahawk: Apr. 26 at 9:44 PM
$TSN should not be beaten as much as $SFD and $HRL but in case the rumors where just smoke and mirrors is going down too…nice chart but..
Ticker: HRL SFD TSN
wind4me: Apr. 26 at 9:44 PM
@kasen05 $BOOM, $WGOV, $GRO, some vestas, some $AMSC but selling$AMSC tomorrow, too expensive 4 no profits http://www.Wind4me.com
Ticker: AMSC BOOM GRO WGOV
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:44 PM
@wind4me Yes and also be advised that the contango killer is at work in both$UNG and $USO right now.
Ticker: UNG USO
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:44 PM
@Fullcarry I will look into further on Argentina. I think they dealt with sudden stop, no?
Fullcarry: Apr. 26 at 9:43 PM
@mikestiller Argentina had huge output gaps during their worst bouts of inflation.
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:43 PM
@InEgoVeritas in my mind that’s called hyperinflation. All three fall together (UST USD and equities) all that is denominated in dollars
wind4me: Apr. 26 at 9:42 PM
Nat Gas $UNG, sorry 4 longs cause demand DOWN, Supply UP, and storage 38% higher than last year forcing prices DOWN on nat gas and $UNG
Ticker: UNG
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:42 PM
@faustroll As @mikestiller and I have wondered, what does Hendry the Deflationist do, now that he (took my advice?) and sold his bonds?
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:41 PM
@GregorMacdonald the infamous output gap! I have my doubts about it as you know.
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 9:41 PM
deflation only until wheels grind to halt, only when inventory is gone, then $$ will have to cough up to start wheels again … how long?
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:41 PM
$$ And again, just remembering 1970s, P/E ratio compression because of inflation/ higher interest rates could cloud next decade for stocks.
daplumba: Apr. 26 at 9:41 PM
It’s over
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
@KiddJones 10 over on the links. F did have a nice pop. I think they will acutally make it not sure about GM or Chrysler.
Mrclove4: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
$FRZ.. MAYBE A POP!
Ticker: FRZ
daplumba: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
Commercial real estate will crash
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
@GregorMacdonald we will surely see inflation, but as @quantshoptrader and Hendry advise short term may have another deflation leg down
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
@GregorMacdonald yes, I guess I just like egging you on. or getting others to see the thinking behind it…
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:40 PM
@faustroll That alone could accelerate a tippling point toward inflation.
AriCostello: Apr. 26 at 9:39 PM
@GregorMacdonald remember, many middle-class families restricted to 401Ks that only allow bonds, stocks, or cash — invest for the LT, eh
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:38 PM
How reflation works: deflation, deflation, deflation, deflation, burp, reflation…and then woosh, inflation problem.
hedgefundinvest: Apr. 26 at 9:38 PM
@GregorMacdonald The question is what kind of recovery, L shaped, V shaped, U shaped, W shaped, etc… but the worst may be behind us.
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:38 PM
@GregorMacdonald I don’t think any delfationist does not see eventual inflation on the horizion; matter of time horizon
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:38 PM
$$ Went to a real estate invstor meeting this wk.An individual (in 70s) who owns commercial properties all over US says its worst he’s seen.
DeepakDas: Apr. 26 at 9:37 PM
CEO’s & Corporations cannot blindly use twitter as suggested by some “twitter pundits” http://bit.ly/iW9FL Tweets must be SEC compliant
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:37 PM
@InEgoVeritas Bonds down, Stocks down, Dollar Down, Gold up: The Four Horsemen.
daplumba: Apr. 26 at 9:37 PM
$LVLT to the moon
Ticker: LVLT
Alexxx76: Apr. 26 at 9:37 PM
The chart in $WMT maybe a “tell” of what to come for the retailers
Ticker: WMT
slyspy: Apr. 26 at 9:36 PM
$PWAV
Ticker: PWAV
aaahawk: Apr. 26 at 9:36 PM
$SFD takeover rumors but then the flu…visit the $5/6 again?
Ticker: SFD
CTGFutures: Apr. 26 at 9:36 PM
@GTNew I gather u meant the $EURUSD Short – Chart was too small here is the larger view. http://twitpic.com/42uhp
Ticker: EURUSD
KiddJones: Apr. 26 at 9:36 PM
@waterlogz rake up on my $F 15% pop… how did ya hit the links?
Ticker: F
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:36 PM
@IRON100 indeed the budget deficit should be inflationary but as you have said before the timing or tipping point is crucial re deflate
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:35 PM
Speaking of flows: How about this new IMF Bond floatation and look who will capitalize it: Brazil, China–the one’s with “the capital.”
InEgoVeritas: Apr. 26 at 9:35 PM
@mikestiller Biggest worry is that USTs selling triggers fear in US Gov QE policy with $USD + Stock selling. A sort of nasty triple play
Ticker: USD
KiddJones: Apr. 26 at 9:33 PM
roche i think
fleckman: Apr. 26 at 9:33 PM
@GregorMacdonald I think ur spot on and there’s really no need for the “ifs”. JMHO ;-)
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:33 PM
@faustroll and that does not even include the budget bloat being added currently
AriCostello: Apr. 26 at 9:32 PM
@amuhr Debt service payments (imo) — for households; and it’s got a long way to go
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:32 PM
@hedgefundinvest I have to give macro bears some respect at least wrt idea that even recovery would carry many balls and chains.
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:32 PM
They are recomending a certain shot for the swine flu what Pharm puts it out. Anyone know?
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:32 PM
@faustroll I am be very simplistic, but I see the printing presses run, a min $56Tof unfunded liabilities, and I remember late 70s lol
quantshoptrader: Apr. 26 at 9:32 PM
ShopperTrak reported YOY retail sales dropped 11.5% (w/e April 18th). Capacity utilization also still in the pits.
amuhr: Apr. 26 at 9:31 PM
http://is.gd/uLUd – which one’s the better indicator? debt service pmts or financial obligations? both coming down- good for economy
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:31 PM
@IRON100 interesting to see how many traders are already reflationist or inflationist even as credit contraction continues
hedgefundinvest: Apr. 26 at 9:31 PM
M: Positive macro signs on many fronts, it is possible that the U.S. economy has bottomed. Or maybe not. Bloomberg http://bit.ly/BU71D
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:31 PM
@mikestiller If global govt bonds tank (in price) on dried up flows, then monetization ramps and Gold and Silver soar. JMHO. :-)
Trophykw: Apr. 26 at 9:31 PM
Watch this co tommorow they make a swine flu drug $NOVN
Ticker: NOVN
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:30 PM
$CLF we will see how theyre earings turn out on Wedsday. I havnt heard any rumors on take over. But stranger things have happened.
Ticker: CLF
lillianwong: Apr. 26 at 9:30 PM
RT @infoarbitrage: SEC beginning to scrutinize use of Twitter by corporates to communicate with constituencies http://bit.ly/1adVyA
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:29 PM
At the half hour: ES down -12.75. Oil down .95 to 50.61. Gold firm up 3.00 to 917.00. Silver strong at 13.11.
Mrclove4: Apr. 26 at 9:29 PM
@kunal00 HEY KUNAL.. HOW DOES $SMRT LOOK AS A BREAK OUT??
Ticker: SMRT
TropicsZ4: Apr. 26 at 9:29 PM
Las Vegas Sands seeks buyer for Macau casino irm mulling sale and leaseback but keeping gaming licence http://snipr.com/gsu30 $LVS
Ticker: LVS
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:29 PM
@GregorMacdonald I too an inflationist leaning and never really focused on dried up flows. Good point.
Richpuer: Apr. 26 at 9:29 PM
@sufrj 19 of the past 22 mondays have been down..go figure eh….i guess its down cuz its a monday $DJIA
Ticker: DJIA
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:28 PM
@KiddJones Oops my mistake.WFC. If the test were positive you think they would have paraded them out on time? How can they be +?
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:28 PM
@infoarbitrage It does, in principal, sidestep Reg FD in a way for sure.
mikestiller: Apr. 26 at 9:28 PM
@GregorMacdonald in your opinion, IF bonds dry up, where does capital go? Equities, CRB, cash?
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:28 PM
@GregorMacdonald exactly: interested in how intelligent observers can see such different macroeconomic realities: deflation vs. inflation
Richpuer: Apr. 26 at 9:28 PM
@9onni3 financials are so wack right now…any dip, i keep on loading the boat and take em off on rips. im up 69% YTD thx 2 financials $FAS
Ticker: FAS
aaahawk: Apr. 26 at 9:27 PM
$HRL this is a good co but is going down nevertheless…29 maybe 25 or less
Ticker: HRL
CTGFutures: Apr. 26 at 9:27 PM
$EURUSD closes out with 36 PIPS profit moments ago. Here is the closing signal and chart http://tinyurl.com/cwckjc
Ticker: EURUSD
infoarbitrage: Apr. 26 at 9:26 PM
Uh oh – the SEC beginning to scrutinize the use of Twitter by corporates to communicate with their constituencies http://bit.ly/1adVyA
dvolatility: Apr. 26 at 9:26 PM
RT @amuhr: @quantshoptrader Fed CHART – revolving credit (split up -http://is.gd/uLQ1 ) total revocredit yoy%change – http://is.gd/uLRa
MarketAddicts: Apr. 26 at 9:26 PM
$BAX $NVAX $ADLS $BCRX $GNVC $DVAX $HEB $HGSI $IMM $INHX$INSM $SVA $VICL: In addition to the obvious stocks whi..http://tinyurl.com/cadcp3
MarketAddicts: Apr. 26 at 9:26 PM
$TLT, $TBT, $RYJUX: Global Appetite for Bonds May Run Dry: The capital well is running dry and some economies wi.. http://tinyurl.com/dy96gu
Ticker: TBT TLT
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:25 PM
B/C I’m an inflationist, I like to pay attention to @quantshoptrader. Now, what if Gov Bond falls is not Reflation–but dried up flows?
mr_piehole: Apr. 26 at 9:24 PM
I can still get out of these shorts without a a big loss on monday. I just don’t think that will be necessary. Futures look a tad weak. $BGZ
Ticker: BGZ
KiddJones: Apr. 26 at 9:24 PM
@waterlogz is that supposed to be $WFC or $WF? im am thinking these bank stress test are over hyped negatively.
Ticker: WF WFC
amuhr: Apr. 26 at 9:24 PM
@quantshoptrader Fed CHART – revolving credit (split up – http://is.gd/uLQ1 ) total revocredit yoy%change – http://is.gd/uLRa
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:23 PM
@InEgoVeritas That’s the tipping point for the Recognition Phase: FED ramping up Treasury QE as bond prices fall. Oh my when it comes.
infovestment: Apr. 26 at 9:22 PM
@Alexxx76 $SPY I guess the both of you didnt see overnight futures, SPY isnt dead @86,it is now more than ten points lower
Ticker: SPY
InEgoVeritas: Apr. 26 at 9:22 PM
@GregorMacdonald Think bond yields is next big thing. What’s the Fed plan if they rise and impact mortgage rates? More QE?
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:21 PM
@BMR789 So much more flexible NG plays in Australia: LNG, underground coal gassification, etc. Yes.
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:21 PM
@GregorMacdonald Armstrong I’ll the rationalist stance and declare it bosh
Alexxx76: Apr. 26 at 9:20 PM
RT @playbigstocks: $SPY needed to close over 86.66 to have a range to re-test 93.88 and where did it close Friday? DEAD @ 86.66. http:/ …
Ticker: SPY
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:20 PM
@GregorMacdonald fair enough: am w/u on lack of imagination w/team obama; lack of political power may also be a factor
iuubob: Apr. 26 at 9:20 PM
@coy_mor reading along not sure what your post meant?
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:20 PM
For some Color: I assume people are aware of Martin Armstrong’s 19 April turn date. Thoughts?
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:19 PM
June 10 yr and 30 yr bond futures firm tonight. But that’s not saying much after last week, is it?
CTGFutures: Apr. 26 at 9:19 PM
As per our FOREX trade plan we are short $EURUSD with our Nested Systems. Here is the chart. http://tinyurl.com/cwckjc
Ticker: EURUSD
waterlogz: Apr. 26 at 9:18 PM
Long $AEM $GG Short $GS $JPM $WF and $HOG
Ticker: AEM GG GS HOG JPM WF
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:18 PM
@faustroll IMO Econ Team Obama strategy wrt Banks can be explained more via calcification of ideas than nefarious or inept intent.
Adrigonzo: Apr. 26 at 9:17 PM
SF Fed’s Yellen on Lehman regret, still stinks of Goldmanhttp://tinyurl.com/c7wv5k $GS $LEH
Ticker: GS LEH
coy_mor: Apr. 26 at 9:17 PM
That makes April 27 and May 4 potentially huge down days.
ctryman48: Apr. 26 at 9:17 PM
$DDR is something im watching they had a good earnings report and offer a .20 dividend what are thoughts on this $DDR
Ticker: DDR
Fullcarry: Apr. 26 at 9:17 PM
@InEgoVeritas Should 3% be taken out its probable we shoot to 3.5 very fast.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:16 PM
@beanieville There is monetary risk of oil above 100 inside of one year. There is geology risk of oil above 200 in 2012.
BMR789: Apr. 26 at 9:16 PM
@GregorMacdonald Have to just be USA NG. Take a look at Karoon ASX.KAR
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:16 PM
@GregorMacdonald 2 continue: does the policy decision to occlude banking problems and “paper” over the hole reflect weakness?
InEgoVeritas: Apr. 26 at 9:15 PM
@Fullcarry What’s your next ey level in yields if 3% holds?
beanieville: Apr. 26 at 9:15 PM
@gregormacdonald, when do you see oil over $100?
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 9:15 PM
$ECA can’t get going, with oil up/down, NG falling off map, ECA just holding steady. They should have split but glad they didn’t now
Ticker: ECA
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:15 PM
@qwick1 Yes there is oil in the Dakotas. It’s rock-bound but it’s there. (It’s not kerogen). But 50 WTIC won’t cut it fort the Bakken.
stnickb1: Apr. 26 at 9:14 PM
@docking don’t laugh this is a way to quickly take away freedoms $$CASH
Ticker: CASH
CharlySpider: Apr. 26 at 9:14 PM
Sold $SOHU last friday and will buy tomorrow in a pull back. This stock in China always has a good ride the whole month of may
Ticker: SOHU
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:13 PM
@Fullcarry How did UK Gilts finish out the week? In your overall, top-down view?
TodayTrader: Apr. 26 at 9:12 PM
$$ My niece is a Journalism major in college. I hope they are offering a class on blogging! http://bit.ly/J85gd
docking: Apr. 26 at 9:12 PM
$DXO looking for pull back on Monday due to continued economic concerns and swine flu (We can now begin blaming everything on swine flu) ha!
Ticker: DXO
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:12 PM
@tradingpoints For NG investors with 24 mos horizon, I would look to basket of USA NG names or just blue chip ECA. No perfect plays.
Fullcarry: Apr. 26 at 9:12 PM
Should the US 10 year yield stay above 3% for a week I will be officially on reflation watch.
CharlySpider: Apr. 26 at 9:11 PM
Thinking on buying $ANR late this week or early next week
Ticker: ANR
infovestment: Apr. 26 at 9:11 PM
@beanieville $SPY again, wishul thinking doesnt make it so,short of Bernie or Tim making pulling a fast one you dont get a 20pt gap up
Ticker: SPY
9onni3: Apr. 26 at 9:10 PM
Thinking about buying $FEED with a pull back. @Richpuer hopefully financials continue rally.
Ticker: FEED
stockgod: Apr. 26 at 9:10 PM
@playbigstocks i always buy on fear. i can smell the fear coming..
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:10 PM
@cowtowner66 Coal is tricky because of political risk now. I wrote a big Coal piece this week http://bit.ly/NrPTI – Oz safer than USA.
tradingpoints: Apr. 26 at 9:10 PM
@GregorMacdonald $UNG is flawed w/front mo & contango other than futures – is there a way to play?
Ticker: UNG
sufrj: Apr. 26 at 9:09 PM
just entered $USD/JPY, stop at 96.632
Ticker: USD
quantshoptrader: Apr. 26 at 9:09 PM
@GregorMacdonald Well, yes indeed! M2 contracting at 8.9% annual rate; MSM shrunk 7.6%. Both declined last 3 wks
faustroll: Apr. 26 at 9:08 PM
@GregorMacdonald LOL: the usual and expected caution from authorities does not seem evident; is that a pomo acceptance of fabulism?
beanieville: Apr. 26 at 9:08 PM
@infovestment I would have to kill ya first. lol. jk . But anything can and does happen in futures.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:08 PM
@IRON100 There is no question, indeed. A Carbon/Climate bill would also tip PowerGen demand more to NG, next few years.
quantshoptrader: Apr. 26 at 9:08 PM
Fed chart – Revolving credit decreased at 9-3/4% YOY. Ouch. http://bit.ly/BgoRF
Phileo99: Apr. 26 at 9:07 PM
I wonder if the bird flu stocks ($HEB,$GNBT,$NVAX) will gap up on monday
Ticker: GNBT HEB NVAX
RatioTrader: Apr. 26 at 9:07 PM
There is no “I think” in trading. You either take the trade or you don’t and if you do, you better have a reason and a plan
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:07 PM
@quantshoptrader Let me guess: you are thinking velocity is deader than dead. And that the deflationary jackhammer lives.
cowtowner66: Apr. 26 at 9:07 PM
@GregorMacdonald where do you see $KOL going from here?
Ticker: KOL
IRON100: Apr. 26 at 9:07 PM
$$ NG can only be untrapped through leadership on issue for autos, and that, I think must still come from an informed public voting it in.
infovestment: Apr. 26 at 9:06 PM
@beanieville $SPY, other than your thoughts/wishes, can you name a more compelling reason why wld gap up,BTW gap up wld be 20pts from here
Ticker: SPY
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:06 PM
@faustroll The Summers macro downplay tactic would seem more appropriate in a lead-up to a boxing match.
iuubob: Apr. 26 at 9:06 PM
@GregorMacdonald love to listen thanks for your participation
dmille22: Apr. 26 at 9:05 PM
@gulicious I think you’ll find $GS increased exposure to interest rates interesting:http://tinyurl.com/dce7ja
Ticker: GS
quantshoptrader: Apr. 26 at 9:04 PM
Fed chart – Total Bank Credit – dropped again. At an 18% annual rate…http://bit.ly/hkLsV
franksmicro: Apr. 26 at 9:04 PM
@mewcomm No, I think recession will be over by end of 2009. Its the subsequent hyperinflation that is my biggest concern.
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:04 PM
@Twigins NG is a trapped fossil fuel here in North America. And it’s following factory/industrial use here. Can’t catch global bid.
beanieville: Apr. 26 at 9:04 PM
I think we will gap up tomorrow. I think it’s a good buy here, those who trade futures. $SPX 853
Ticker: SPX
stockgod: Apr. 26 at 9:03 PM
$$ Money – Chrysler wins union concessions http://tinyurl.com/d4m2ld
GregorMacdonald: Apr. 26 at 9:03 PM
@mattkelty Perhaps it’s Larry Summers. Perhaps it’s North American Swine. Regardless, the JPY is stronger indeed.
Stocktrader69: Apr. 26 at 9:03 PM
Chrysler and Fiat and UAW just announced an accord
Twigins: Apr. 26 at 9:03 PM
Gregor, what’s happening with NG? Doesn’t compute that it’s tanking?
BuyOnTheDip: Apr. 26 at 9:02 PM
@MDabbles … It’s the Will Smith of gold stocks. oscar worthy! $IAG
Ticker: IAG
cowtowner66: Apr. 26 at 9:02 PM
Short $SFD if this article is true http://www.grist.org/article/2009-04-25-swine-flu-smithfield/
Ticker: SFD
mattkelty: Apr. 26 at 9:02 PM
I’m now short $USDJPY @ 96.94, looking for a quick play
Ticker: USDJPY
kunal00: Apr. 26 at 9:01 PM
http://chart.ly/m4a39w $GR – Breakoutpullback play..buy as close to support as possible.Only on low vol pbs
Ticker: GR
StockTwits: Apr. 26 at 9:00 PM
MacroTwits hour with @gregormacdonald starts right now

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

You might be interested in:
blog comments powered by Disqus

In partnership with CNN Money Part of the CNN Network