How Did StockTwits Users React to Trump and the AHCA?

The Trump administration suffered their first major loss in congress last week when Republicans withdrew the American Health Care Act (AHCA) after failing to gain enough GOP support. The two week rise and fall of the AHCA caused some major buzz, especially with healthcare being such a hot topic since the election. We were curious how StockTwits users reacted to Trump’s Healthcare Policy and the AHCA and how they believed that this would impact the markets.

Average daily message volume for tickers in the Healthcare, Pharma and BioTech sectors all increased significantly in the days following both the election and the announcement of the AHCA relative to the week leading up to the event.  Pharma jumped the most following the election with volume increasing almost 50%, from 1,325 messages/day to 2,050 messages/day in the few days following the election. Healthcare and BioTech also saw significant jumps, 38% and 28% respectively.  The announcement of the AHCA saw Healthcare and BioTech volume each increase by just under 50%.  Healthcare saw an increase from 6,850 messages/day to 10,050 messages/day and BioTech jumped from 5,400 messages/day to 8,300 messages/day. Pharma also increased significantly, just shy of 30%, but saw less chatter than Healthcare and BioTech.  Volume was relatively flat after the AHCA was withdrawn – the events between the announcement and the death of the bill happened so fast that chatter had never really normalized from the bills announcement.

While his promise to repeal and replace led to a decrease in bullish sentiment by about 3% for Healthcare stocks, Trump’s election win actually saw slight increases in bullish sentiment for Pharma and BioTech stocks.  This is likely due to the fact that many investors expect Trump to be much softer on Pharma and BioTech then Hillary Clinton would have been.  The announcement of AHCA led to slight decreases in bullish sentiment for all three sectors, as much less people would have access to healthcare under the new policy.  Sentiment swung back for Healthcare and BioTech after the repeal with increases of 6% and 3% respectively. While StockTwits users became slightly more bullish on Pharma, we still see a net decrease in Bullish sentiment from the AHCA.

Despite it’s short life, the AHCA led to a significant amount of opinions being shared on StockTwits and some shifts in the perception of how health related sectors will perform.  We aren’t sure what exactly Trump and his team will try to take on next but whatever it is, we expect it to lead to a large number of investors speculating the market impact on StockTwits.

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